TCEC Bayes Elo

TCEC Season 30, 4K_MiniFinal, Game 50: c4ke 3.0-ice4 6.1.1

Aloril — Mon, 15 Jun 2026 20:43:40 +0000

Currently playing: 51. ?-?

Previous game 50. c4ke 3.0-ice4 6.1.1 1/2-1/2 added to BayesElo lists, result table:

Position in r-mobility table and r-moblity points can give different order in some cases

Pos	Engine	Rating	%	Points	Games	Direct encounter	SB	r-mobility points	r-mobility -/- points
1.	c4ke 3.0	3232±30	67.0	33.5	50	0.0	552.75	33.294673919	-0.205326081
2.	ice4 6.1.1	3186±32	33.0	16.5	50	0.0	552.75	16.705326081	0.205326081

R-mobility results as a table, not used as a tiebreak (see r-mobility points above)

G0.0==mate (including cursed mates), score(number of games), previous game was -G2.0

11 different goal results

Pos	Name	G0.0	G1.0	G2.0	G3.0	G3.5	G4.0	G5.0	G5.5	G8.5	G15.5	G20.5
1.	c4ke 3.0	17(21)	0(2)	-5(11)	-6(6)	0(2)	-1(1)	-1(3)	1(1)	-1(1)	-1(1)	-1(1)
2.	ice4 6.1.1	-17(21)	0(2)	5(11)	6(6)	0(2)	1(1)	1(3)	-1(1)	1(1)	1(1)	1(1)

Bayes Elo Ratings

Stockfish_13_CCRL is used as offset at 3526. Difference for some values in parenthesis if any. Created using Bayesian-Elo and some local scripts.

See also BayesElo rating based on previous and current season games (2 seasons). This is used in GUI and is the current rating.

TCEC rating

Ratings after last game.

All

Rank	Name	Elo	+	–	games	score	oppo.	draws
1	Stockfish	3808	26	26	267	62%	3718	47%
2	LCZero	3757	26	26	250	55%	3717	55%
3	Reckless	3750	21	21	384	52%	3736	48%
4	Integral	3719	39	39	116	52%	3707	50%
5	Torch	3716	24	24	297	62%	3628	53%
6	PlentyChess	3710	37	37	123	53%	3688	51%
7	Obsidian	3694	35	35	137	49%	3703	55%
8	Ceres	3680	40	40	113	59%	3605	53%
9	Stockfish_15_1G	3668	16	16	637	56%	3622	52%
10	KomodoDragon	3662	47	47	72	51%	3657	63%
11	RubiChess	3662	42	42	96	53%	3641	52%
12	Berserk	3659	45	45	86	43%	3710	47%
13	Pawnocchio	3659	27	27	236	58%	3602	51%
14	Halogen	3655	29	29	202	59%	3590	57%
15	Viridithas	3648	42	42	94	52%	3633	63%
16	Stormphrax	3646	43	43	90	49%	3653	54%
17	Caissa	3632	43	43	89	48%	3644	58%
18	Clover	3621	29	29	196	53%	3605	58%
19	Quanticade	3608	33	33	167	58%	3543	52%
20	Stockfish_15_300M	3607	10	10	1672	50%	3607	64%
21	Horsie	3599	41	41	104	56%	3559	44%
22	Ginkgo	3599	43	43	90	52%	3582	56%
23	Ethereal	3594	41	41	96	47%	3617	58%
24	Uralochka	3584	48	48	74	49%	3587	53%
25	rofChade	3570	46	46	79	46%	3601	58%
26	Stockfish_15_100M	3570	7	7	3190	54%	3543	68%
27	Seer	3563	45	45	80	44%	3600	61%
28	Tarnished	3562	30	30	182	52%	3552	58%
29	Booot	3558	47	47	76	45%	3595	50%
30	Cinder	3553	55	55	54	52%	3542	56%
31	Velvet	3549	47	47	80	51%	3542	48%
32	Stoofvlees	3542	48	48	71	43%	3588	58%
33	Heimdall	3538	37	37	122	50%	3539	54%
34	Renegade	3529	37	37	124	49%	3538	54%
35	Stockfish_13_CCRL	3522	9	9	2048	51%	3517	69%
36	Stockfish_15_30M_4th	3517	6	6	5120	51%	3508	69%
37	Igel	3510	47	47	74	46%	3537	57%
38	Stockfish_15_30M	3498	7	7	3154	49%	3506	66%
39	BlackMarlin	3494	48	48	73	45%	3532	53%
40	Monty	3473	54	54	69	57%	3392	35%
41	Arasan	3463	51	51	62	38%	3545	60%
42	Tucano	3462	66	66	38	38%	3541	45%
43	Weiss	3461	230	230	2	75%	3349	50%
44	Winter	3458	42	42	104	49%	3466	41%
45	DeepSjeng	3457	49	49	74	43%	3505	46%
46	Serendipity	3454	57	57	52	35%	3550	50%
47	Sirius	3448	59	59	54	57%	3396	41%
48	Minic	3447	62	62	48	55%	3410	40%
49	Wasp	3447	63	63	42	36%	3541	52%
50	Stockfish_15_10M	3427	7	7	3136	46%	3456	63%
51	Patricia	3408	43	43	96	42%	3466	42%
52	Stockfish_15_3M	3349	9	9	2082	51%	3342	59%
53	Lynx	3324	57	57	52	46%	3352	50%
54	Bagatur	3313	72	72	42	24%	3500	43%
55	Stockfish_15_1M	3253	9	9	2094	52%	3241	56%
56	ChessFighter	3248	55	55	64	40%	3330	48%
57	Princhess	3243	58	58	58	34%	3357	47%
58	c4ke	3231(-1)	30	30	216(+1)	58%	3111	51%
59	LESS_STRO4K	3194	52	52	72	63%	3117	39%
60	ice4	3186	32	32	192(+1)	52%	3105	49%
61	Stockfish_15_300k	3129	9	9	2104	52%	3113	49%
62	Cheese	3114	88	88	30	22%	3353	30%
63	4k.c	3004	42	42	120	42%	2979	37%
64	4ku	3003(+1)	71	71	50	58%	2746	40%
65	Stockfish_15_100k	2968	10	10	2090	54%	2939	39%
66	STRO4K	2925(+1)	66	66	62	47%	2814	26%
67	Stockfish_15_30k	2740	10	10	2052	51%	2730	29%
68	Stockfish_15_10k	2490	12	12	2052	55%	2429	19%
69	molly	2359	238	238	50	18%	2809	0%
70	Stockfish_15_3k	2116	15	15	2058	50%	2103	9%
71	Stockfish_15_1k	1719	22	22	1034	7%	2112	8%
72	pygone	1678	131	131	68	6%	2658	3%

TCEC Season 30, 4K_MiniFinal, Game 50 speculation simulation

Aloril — Mon, 15 Jun 2026 19:43:16 +0000

Jun 15 2026

For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2. Columns 1.-2. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. R-mobility not yet used in simulations except as biased random().

eloAdvantage = 140.859 and eloDraw = 261.489 updated on 2022-03-15 based on 300 Season 21 and 22 DivP games. Scale=0.617564 based on rating list 2022-03-27

Pos	Name	1.	2.
1.	c4ke 3.0	100.000%
2.	ice4 6.1.1	100.000%

TCEC Season 30, 4K_MiniFinal, Game 49: ice4 6.1.1-c4ke 3.0

Aloril — Mon, 15 Jun 2026 19:42:34 +0000

Jun 15 2026

Currently playing: 50. c4ke 3.0-ice4 6.1.1

Previous game 49. ice4 6.1.1-c4ke 3.0 0-1 added to BayesElo lists, result table:

Position in r-mobility table and r-moblity points can give different order in some cases

Pos	Engine	Rating	%	Points	Games	Direct encounter	SB	r-mobility points	r-mobility -/- points
1.	c4ke 3.0	3231±30	67.3	33.0	49	0.0	528.00	32.825923919	-0.174076081
2.	ice4 6.1.1	3187±32	32.7	16.0	49	0.0	528.00	16.174076081	0.174076081

R-mobility results as a table, not used as a tiebreak (see r-mobility points above)

G0.0==mate (including cursed mates), score(number of games), previous game was -G0.0

11 different goal results

Pos	Name	G0.0	G1.0	G2.0	G3.0	G3.5	G4.0	G5.0	G5.5	G8.5	G15.5	G20.5
1.	c4ke 3.0	17(21)	0(2)	-4(10)	-6(6)	0(2)	-1(1)	-1(3)	1(1)	-1(1)	-1(1)	-1(1)
2.	ice4 6.1.1	-17(21)	0(2)	4(10)	6(6)	0(2)	1(1)	1(3)	-1(1)	1(1)	1(1)	1(1)

Bayes Elo Ratings

Stockfish_13_CCRL is used as offset at 3526. Difference for some values in parenthesis if any. Created using Bayesian-Elo and some local scripts.

See also BayesElo rating based on previous and current season games (2 seasons). This is used in GUI and is the current rating.

TCEC rating

Ratings after last game.

All

Rank	Name	Elo	+	–	games	score	oppo.	draws
1	Stockfish	3808	26	26	267	62%	3718	47%
2	LCZero	3757	26	26	250	55%	3717	55%
3	Reckless	3750	21	21	384	52%	3736	48%
4	Integral	3719	39	39	116	52%	3707	50%
5	Torch	3716	24	24	297	62%	3628	53%
6	PlentyChess	3710	37	37	123	53%	3688	51%
7	Obsidian	3694	35	35	137	49%	3703	55%
8	Ceres	3680	40	40	113	59%	3605	53%
9	Stockfish_15_1G	3668	16	16	637	56%	3622	52%
10	KomodoDragon	3662	47	47	72	51%	3657	63%
11	RubiChess	3662	42	42	96	53%	3641	52%
12	Berserk	3659	45	45	86	43%	3710	47%
13	Pawnocchio	3659	27	27	236	58%	3602	51%
14	Halogen	3655	29	29	202	59%	3590	57%
15	Viridithas	3648	42	42	94	52%	3633	63%
16	Stormphrax	3646	43	43	90	49%	3653	54%
17	Caissa	3632	43	43	89	48%	3644	58%
18	Clover	3621	29	29	196	53%	3605	58%
19	Quanticade	3608	33	33	167	58%	3543	52%
20	Stockfish_15_300M	3607	10	10	1672	50%	3607	64%
21	Horsie	3599	41	41	104	56%	3559	44%
22	Ginkgo	3599	43	43	90	52%	3582	56%
23	Ethereal	3594	41	41	96	47%	3617	58%
24	Uralochka	3584	48	48	74	49%	3587	53%
25	rofChade	3570	46	46	79	46%	3601	58%
26	Stockfish_15_100M	3570	7	7	3190	54%	3543	68%
27	Seer	3563	45	45	80	44%	3600	61%
28	Tarnished	3562	30	30	182	52%	3552	58%
29	Booot	3558	47	47	76	45%	3595	50%
30	Cinder	3553	55	55	54	52%	3542	56%
31	Velvet	3549	47	47	80	51%	3542	48%
32	Stoofvlees	3542	48	48	71	43%	3588	58%
33	Heimdall	3538	37	37	122	50%	3538	54%
34	Renegade	3529	37	37	124	49%	3538	54%
35	Stockfish_13_CCRL	3522	9	9	2048	51%	3517	69%
36	Stockfish_15_30M_4th	3517	6	6	5120	51%	3508	69%
37	Igel	3510	47	47	74	46%	3537	57%
38	Stockfish_15_30M	3498	7	7	3154	49%	3506	66%
39	BlackMarlin	3494	48	48	73	45%	3532	53%
40	Monty	3473	54	54	69	57%	3392	35%
41	Arasan	3463	51	51	62	38%	3545	60%
42	Tucano	3462	66	66	38	38%	3541	45%
43	Weiss	3461	230	230	2	75%	3349	50%
44	Winter	3458	42	42	104	49%	3466	41%
45	DeepSjeng	3457	49	49	74	43%	3505	46%
46	Serendipity	3454	57	57	52	35%	3550	50%
47	Sirius	3448	59	59	54	57%	3396	41%
48	Minic	3447	62	62	48	55%	3410	40%
49	Wasp	3447	63	63	42	36%	3541	52%
50	Stockfish_15_10M	3427	7	7	3136	46%	3456	63%
51	Patricia	3408	43	43	96	42%	3466	42%
52	Stockfish_15_3M	3349	9	9	2082	51%	3342	59%
53	Lynx	3324	57	57	52	46%	3352	50%
54	Bagatur	3313	72	72	42	24%	3500	43%
55	Stockfish_15_1M	3253	9	9	2094	52%	3241	56%
56	ChessFighter	3248	55	55	64	40%	3330	48%
57	Princhess	3243	58	58	58	34%	3357	47%
58	c4ke	3232(+1)	30	30	215(+1)	58%	3110	51%
59	LESS_STRO4K	3194	52	52	72	63%	3117	39%
60	ice4	3186(-1)	32	32	191(+1)	52%	3104	49%
61	Stockfish_15_300k	3129	9	9	2104	52%	3113	49%
62	Cheese	3114	88	88	30	22%	3353	30%
63	4k.c	3004	42	42	120	42%	2979	37%
64	4ku	3002(-1)	71	71	50	58%	2746	40%
65	Stockfish_15_100k	2968	10	10	2090	54%	2939	39%
66	STRO4K	2924(-1)	66	66	62	47%	2814	26%
67	Stockfish_15_30k	2740	10	10	2052	51%	2730	29%
68	Stockfish_15_10k	2490	12	12	2052	55%	2429	19%
69	molly	2359	238	238	50	18%	2809	0%
70	Stockfish_15_3k	2116(-1)	15	15	2058	50%	2103	9%
71	Stockfish_15_1k	1719	22	22	1034	7%	2112	8%
72	pygone	1678	131	131	68	6%	2658	3%

TCEC Season 30, 4K_MiniFinal, Game 49 speculation simulation

Aloril — Mon, 15 Jun 2026 18:29:09 +0000

Jun 15 2026

For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

eloAdvantage = 140.859 and eloDraw = 261.489 updated on 2022-03-15 based on 300 Season 21 and 22 DivP games. Scale=0.617564 based on rating list 2022-03-27

Pos	Name	1.	2.
1.	c4ke 3.0	100.000%
2.	ice4 6.1.1	100.000%

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.12h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC	No	White	Black
2026-06-15 19:36	50	c4ke 3.0	ice4 6.1.1