https://www.litefinance.org/blog/Our Forex blog is an independent source of valuable insights on financial markets, Forex income opportunities, and cryptocurrencies for traders and investors. The <a href="/blog/authors/">authors</a> are active traders, economic commentators, and well-known analysts. <br><br> In this Forex blog, you'll find everything you need to know about the foreign exchange market.enThu, 30 Jul 2026 09:32:12 +0300analysts-opinionsThe new Fed Chair appears determined to let the markets do part of the central bank's job of bringing inflation back to target. According to Kevin Warsh, this process is already underway, as reflected in rising Treasury yields. Let's discuss this topic and make a trading plan for EUR/USD. Major Takeaways Markets do not know how to handle their newfound power. The number of hawkish FOMC dissenters is growing. The odds of a rate hike are declining. Rebounds from 1.1470, 1.1550, and 1.1585 will provide selling opportunities for EUR/USD. Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Kevin Warsh has handed the steering... Read full author’s opinion and review in blog of #LiteFinancehttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/analysts-opinions/eurusd-forecast-and-price-prediction/will-the-dollar-do-the-feds-job-forecast-as-of-30072026/blog-103421<article class="post post-large blog-single-post" morss_own_score="9.471698113207548" morss_score="13.812607204116638"><span>30</span><span>Jul.</span><span>2026</span><span>09:32</span><div class="content-box" itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Article" morss_own_score="5.681818181818182" morss_score="61.40780189089599"><p>The new Fed Chair appears determined to let the markets do part of the central bank's job of bringing inflation back to target. According to Kevin Warsh, this process is already underway, as reflected in rising Treasury yields. Let's discuss this topic and make a trading plan for <a href="https://www.litefinance.org/trading/trading-instruments/currency/eurusd/">EUR/USD</a>.</p><p>The article covers the following subjects:</p><br><h2>Major Takeaways</h2><ul><li>Markets do not know how to handle their newfound power.</li><li>The number of hawkish FOMC dissenters is growing.</li><li>The odds of a rate hike are declining.</li><li>Rebounds from 1.1470, 1.1550, and 1.1585 will provide selling opportunities for EUR/USD.</li></ul><h2>Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar</h2><p>Kevin Warsh has handed the steering wheel to the markets, but they do not know what to do with it. According to the new Fed Chair, the Fed's decision to abandon forward guidance is not intended to catch markets off guard. Markets should react to incoming data rather than trying to predict the central bank's next move. This shift in thinking has produced the first paradox: the number of hawkish FOMC officials is increasing, yet the odds of further monetary tightening are falling. That has weighed heavily on the US dollar. The question is: for how long?</p><h3>US Treasury Yield Trends</h3><p><a href="https://cdn.litemarkets.com/cache/uploads/blog_post/eurusd/treasuries-yield-30-07-26.jpg?q=75&amp;s=f7539fa191b2e55889c143659642b9d2"><img src="https://cdn.litemarkets.com/cache/uploads/blog_post/eurusd/treasuries-yield-30-07-26.jpg?q=75&amp;s=f7539fa191b2e55889c143659642b9d2"></a></p><p><em>Source: Bloomberg.</em></p><p>Kevin Warsh first introduced the "watch the data, not the Fed" approach in June. In July, the new Fed Chair said it was proving effective. Treasury yields are higher than they were 42 days ago, while inflation expectations remain close to the desired level. Does that mean the strategy is working? Are the markets doing the Fed's job by helping slow inflation?</p><p>Not quite. The sell-off in stock markets, the surge in Treasury yields, and the decline of the US dollar suggest the opposite—the markets are worried about inflation. More specifically, they doubt their own ability to contain inflation without tighter monetary policy. Investors interpreted Kevin Warsh's intention to delegate part of the Fed's job to the markets as a sign that the central bank would continue delaying rate hikes. As a result, the probability of a September rate increase fell from 75% to 65%, becoming the main driver behind the <a href="https://www.litefinance.org/trading/trading-instruments/currency/eurusd/">EUR/USD</a> rally.</p><h3>Federal Funds Rate Target</h3><p><a href="https://cdn.litemarkets.com/cache/uploads/blog_post/eurusd/fed-funds-rate-30-07-26.jpg?q=75&amp;s=cb83c821b108cc68bbe8213907392072"><img src="https://cdn.litemarkets.com/cache/uploads/blog_post/eurusd/fed-funds-rate-30-07-26.jpg?q=75&amp;s=cb83c821b108cc68bbe8213907392072"></a>  </p><p><em>Source: Wall Street Journal.</em></p><p>The problem is that Kevin Warsh's new approach to getting others to do part of the Fed's work is still poorly understood by other FOMC members. Many remain undecided, while three Fed officials openly question the effectiveness of the new approach. Neel Kashkari, Beth Hammack, and Lorie Logan voted in favor of raising interest rates, marking the largest group of hawkish dissenters since September 2016.</p><p>Goldman Sachs noted that the Fed is becoming increasingly hawkish as its patience with elevated inflation wears thin. JPMorgan went even further, arguing that Kevin Warsh once again failed to clearly explain how he intends to fulfill his promise of bringing inflation back to target. According to the bank, Warsh's failure to clearly explain his strategy is likely to make the rest of the FOMC more determined to act in line with their mandate. I tend to agree. The Fed is not a one-man show.</p><h2>Weekly Trading Plan for EUR/USD</h2><p>In my view, <a href="https://www.litefinance.org/trading/trading-instruments/currency/eurusd/">EUR/USD</a> is repeating the same mistake it made in June. At that time, the pair declined after markets interpreted Kevin Warsh's rhetoric as hawkish. Disappointment then triggered a rally. This time, markets have interpreted the new Chair's remarks as a signal that the Fed intends to do nothing. That interpretation is equally misguided. This repeated mistake provides an opportunity to sell the euro either from the upper boundary of the 1.1370–1.1470 consolidation range or on rebounds from the 1.1540 and 1.1585 resistance levels.</p><hr><p>This forecast is based on the analysis of <a href="https://www.litefinance.org/blog/for-beginners/what-is-fundamental-analysis/">fundamental factors</a>, including official statements from financial institutions and regulators, various geopolitical and economic developments, and statistical data. Historical market data are also considered.</p><h2>Price chart of EURUSD in real time mode</h2><a href="https://cdn.litemarkets.com/cache/uploads/blog_post/eurusd/blog-eurusd-30-07-26.jpg?q=75&amp;w=1000&amp;s=9a6db4f960933cd11a5d76114919bd3c"><img src="https://cdn.litemarkets.com/cache/uploads/blog_post/eurusd/blog-eurusd-30-07-26.jpg?q=75&amp;w=1000&amp;s=9a6db4f960933cd11a5d76114919bd3c"></a><p>The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteFinance broker. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2014/65/EU. </p><p>According to copyright law, this article is considered intellectual property, which includes a prohibition on copying and distributing it without consent.</p><div><div>Rate this article:</div><span>{{value}}</span> ( {{count}} {{title}} ) </div></div></article>Wed, 29 Jul 2026 14:56:02 +0300analysts-opinionsThe conflict in the Middle East is unfolding as expected: escalation followed by de-escalation. As a result, investors expect Brent to quickly return to pre-conflict levels. However, that is not guaranteed. Let's examine the key drivers and develop a trading plan. Major Takeaways China's oil imports are increasing. Saudi Arabia's alternative shipping routes are blocked. Global reserves are nearing critical levels. Consider buying Brent, targeting $95 and $100. Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Oil The markets have seen this play out before. Donald Trump halts the airstrikes and says talks with Iran are making progress, while Tehran denies negotiations are even taking... Read full author’s opinion and review in blog of #LiteFinancehttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/analysts-opinions/oil-price-prediction-forecast/brent-may-not-return-to-pre-conflict-levels-anytime-soon-forecast-as-of-29072026/blog-103417<article class="post post-large blog-single-post" morss_own_score="9.350473612990527" morss_score="13.654821439077484"><span>29</span><span>Jul.</span><span>2026</span><span>14:56</span><div class="content-box" itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Article" morss_own_score="5.608695652173913" morss_score="61.92314248258448"><p>The conflict in the Middle East is unfolding as expected: escalation followed by de-escalation. As a result, investors expect <a href="https://www.litefinance.org/trading/trading-instruments/commodities/ukbrent/">Brent</a> to quickly return to pre-conflict levels. However, that is not guaranteed. Let's examine the key drivers and develop a trading plan.</p><p>The article covers the following subjects:</p><br><h2>Major Takeaways</h2><ul><li>China's oil imports are increasing.</li><li>Saudi Arabia's alternative shipping routes are blocked.</li><li>Global reserves are nearing critical levels.</li><li>Consider buying Brent, targeting $95 and $100.</li></ul><h2>Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Oil</h2><p>The markets have seen this play out before. Donald Trump halts the airstrikes and says talks with Iran are making progress, while Tehran denies negotiations are even taking place. Investors assume the standoff will eventually end in a deal, just as it has before. That assumption has prompted traders to sell <a href="https://www.litefinance.org/trading/trading-instruments/commodities/ukbrent/">Brent</a>, expecting prices to retrace the swings seen between March and June. But this time, the market may be underestimating how much has changed.</p><p>According to Macquarie, the oil market is expected to return to a surplus of 2 million barrels per day by Q4 as Washington comes under growing domestic pressure to bring the Middle East conflict to an end. Donald Trump's approval ratings are slipping, while the risk of Republicans losing the November midterm elections is increasing. For now, however, the market appears to be overestimating how long it will take the US and Iran to reach an agreement. It is more likely to be a matter of weeks than months.</p><p>The latest attack on US bases in Jordan suggests Tehran is determined to prolong the conflict. It appears to be waiting for Donald Trump to become more willing to compromise as the election approaches. At the same time, the factors that had helped stabilize the oil market are fading. As a result, the pattern seen previously, with Brent quickly returning to pre-conflict levels, is far less likely to repeat itself, at least as quickly as it did last time.</p><h3>China's Crude Imports</h3><p><a href="https://cdn.litemarkets.com/cache/uploads/blog_post/fundamental_analysis/brent-china-import-29-07-26.jpg?q=75&amp;s=af1dd138653d610de659904c535b3b91"><img src="https://cdn.litemarkets.com/cache/uploads/blog_post/fundamental_analysis/brent-china-import-29-07-26.jpg?q=75&amp;s=af1dd138653d610de659904c535b3b91"></a></p><p><em>Source: Bloomberg.</em></p><p>Chinese crude imports were one of the market's main stabilizers. In June, however, imports fell to 6.2 million bpd, the lowest level since 2015, adding to downward pressure on prices. Preliminary Bloomberg data, however, show that shipments to China rebounded to 7.8 million bpd in July. If that recovery continues, <a href="https://www.litefinance.org/trading/trading-instruments/commodities/ukbrent/">Brent</a> bears will lose an important edge.</p><p>Another source of stability was Gulf producers, led by Saudi Arabia, seeking alternative export routes. However, the Yemeni Houthis' blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has cast doubt on the prospect of the oil market returning to surplus by Q4. With US export growth constrained and global inventories shrinking rapidly, the outlook for Brent bears is becoming increasingly challenging.</p><p>Markets are once again forced to assess how soon the conflict in the Middle East could end. According to Société Générale, each month the conflict continues would add roughly $10 a barrel to Brent prices.</p><p>The White House appears unconvinced by the previous deal, while Iran is seeking additional concessions. With Washington's options narrowing, any escalation would provide further support for oil prices.</p><h2>Weekly Trading Plan for Brent</h2><p>After reaching a <a href="https://www.litefinance.org/blog/analysts-opinions/oil-price-prediction-forecast/brent-climbs-as-bearish-factors-weaken-forecast-as-of-22072026/">bullish target</a> of $99, the <a href="https://www.litefinance.org/trading/trading-instruments/commodities/ukbrent/">Brent</a> price pulled back. Thus, consider opening long trades, targeting $95 and $100.</p><hr><p>This forecast is based on the analysis of <a href="https://www.litefinance.org/blog/for-beginners/what-is-fundamental-analysis/">fundamental factors</a>, including official statements from financial institutions and regulators, various geopolitical and economic developments, and statistical data. Historical market data are also considered.</p><h2>Price chart of UKBRENT in real time mode</h2><a href="https://cdn.litemarkets.com/cache/uploads/blog_post/take-profit/blog-brent-29-07-26-new.jpg?q=75&amp;w=1000&amp;s=82097885972d882d27ab65c0b78c9db0"><img src="https://cdn.litemarkets.com/cache/uploads/blog_post/take-profit/blog-brent-29-07-26-new.jpg?q=75&amp;w=1000&amp;s=82097885972d882d27ab65c0b78c9db0"></a><p>The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteFinance broker. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2014/65/EU. </p><p>According to copyright law, this article is considered intellectual property, which includes a prohibition on copying and distributing it without consent.</p><div><div>Rate this article:</div><span>{{value}}</span> ( {{count}} {{title}} ) </div></div></article>