https://tcecbayeselo.chessdom.orgmaintained by AlorilThu, 11 Jun 2026 19:20:54 +0000en hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=7.0https://tcecbayeselo.chessdom.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/cropped-tcec-logo-512x512-32x32.pnghttps://tcecbayeselo.chessdom.org3232https://tcecbayeselo.chessdom.org/2026/06/11/tcec-season-30-4k-game-126-speculation-simulation/AlorilThu, 11 Jun 2026 19:20:16 +0000BayesElohttps://tcecbayeselo.chessdom.org/?p=44535For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post Situation before game, simulation about most common position 100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most &#62;=2., then most &#62;=3., etc..&#8230;<div class="postie-post" morss_own_score="5.932960893854749" morss_score="29.932960893854748">For <b>standings with all tiebreaks</b> and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see <a href="https://tcecbayeselo.chessdom.org/2026/06/11/tcec-season-30-4k-game-125-4k-c-9-0-4ku-5-1/">previous post</a> <h3>Situation before game, simulation about most common position</h3> <p> 100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most &gt;=2., then most &gt;=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results). </p> <p>eloAdvantage = 140.859 and eloDraw = 261.489 updated on 2022-03-15 based on 300 Season 21 and 22 DivP games. Scale=0.617564 based on rating list 2022-03-27</p><table> <tr> <th>Pos</th> <th>Name</th> <th>1.</th> <th>2.</th> <th>1-2.</th> <th>3.</th> <th>4.</th> <th>5.</th> <th>6.</th> <th>7.</th> </tr> <tr> <td>1.</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> <td><b>99.047%</b></td> <td>0.953%</td> <td><b>100.000%</b></td> </tr> <tr> <td>2.</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> <td>0.953%</td> <td><b>99.047%</b></td> <td><b>100.000%</b></td> </tr> <tr> <td>3.</td> <td>4ku 5.1</td> <td><b>99.937%</b></td> <td>0.063%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>4.</td> <td>4k.c 9.0</td> <td>0.062%</td> <td><b>87.128%</b></td> <td>12.810%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>5.</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> <td>0.001%</td> <td>12.809%</td> <td><b>87.190%</b></td> </tr> <tr> <td>6.</td> <td>molly e317a0c7b8</td> <td><b>100.000%</b></td> </tr> <tr> <td>7.</td> <td>pygone 2-11b142</td> <td><b>100.000%</b></td> </tr> </table> <h3>Top promotions</h3> <table> <tr> <th>Pos</th> <th>1.</th> <th>2.</th> </tr> <tr> <td>1.</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> <td>99.047%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2.</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> <td> 0.953%</td> </tr> </table> <h3>Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical</h3> <table> <tr> <td>1.</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> <td>100.000%</td> </tr> </table> <h3>Expected start time based on estimate of 0.98h/game</h3> <p> Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain. </p> <table> <tr> <th>UTC</th> <th>No</th> <th>White</th> <th>Black</th> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-11 20:18</td> <td>127</td> <td>4k.c 9.0</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-11 21:17</td> <td>128</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> <td>4ku 5.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-11 22:16</td> <td>129</td> <td>molly e317a0c7b8</td> <td>pygone 2-11b142</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-11 23:15</td> <td>130</td> <td>4ku 5.1</td> <td>molly e317a0c7b8</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 00:13</td> <td>131</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 01:12</td> <td>132</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> <td>4k.c 9.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 02:11</td> <td>133</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 03:09</td> <td>134</td> <td>molly e317a0c7b8</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 04:08</td> <td>135</td> <td>pygone 2-11b142</td> <td>4ku 5.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 05:07</td> <td>136</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> <td>pygone 2-11b142</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 06:06</td> <td>137</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> <td>molly e317a0c7b8</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 07:04</td> <td>138</td> <td>4k.c 9.0</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 08:03</td> <td>139</td> <td>molly e317a0c7b8</td> <td>4k.c 9.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 09:02</td> <td>140</td> <td>pygone 2-11b142</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 10:00</td> <td>141</td> <td>4ku 5.1</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 10:59</td> <td>142</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> <td>4ku 5.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 11:58</td> <td>143</td> <td>4k.c 9.0</td> <td>pygone 2-11b142</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 12:57</td> <td>144</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> <td>molly e317a0c7b8</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 13:55</td> <td>145</td> <td>pygone 2-11b142</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 14:54</td> <td>146</td> <td>4ku 5.1</td> <td>4k.c 9.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 15:53</td> <td>147</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 16:52</td> <td>148</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> <td>4k.c 9.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 17:50</td> <td>149</td> <td>4ku 5.1</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 18:49</td> <td>150</td> <td>pygone 2-11b142</td> <td>molly e317a0c7b8</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 19:48</td> <td>151</td> <td>molly e317a0c7b8</td> <td>4ku 5.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 20:46</td> <td>152</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 21:45</td> <td>153</td> <td>4k.c 9.0</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 22:44</td> <td>154</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 23:43</td> <td>155</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> <td>molly e317a0c7b8</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-13 00:41</td> <td>156</td> <td>4ku 5.1</td> <td>pygone 2-11b142</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-13 01:40</td> <td>157</td> <td>pygone 2-11b142</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-13 02:39</td> <td>158</td> <td>molly e317a0c7b8</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-13 03:37</td> <td>159</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> <td>4k.c 9.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-13 04:36</td> <td>160</td> <td>4k.c 9.0</td> <td>molly e317a0c7b8</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-13 05:35</td> <td>161</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> <td>pygone 2-11b142</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-13 06:34</td> <td>162</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> <td>4ku 5.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-13 07:32</td> <td>163</td> <td>4ku 5.1</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-13 08:31</td> <td>164</td> <td>pygone 2-11b142</td> <td>4k.c 9.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-13 09:30</td> <td>165</td> <td>molly e317a0c7b8</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-13 10:29</td> <td>166</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> <td>pygone 2-11b142</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-13 11:27</td> <td>167</td> <td>4k.c 9.0</td> <td>4ku 5.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-13 12:26</td> <td>168</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> </tr> </table> </div> https://tcecbayeselo.chessdom.org/2026/06/11/tcec-season-30-4k-game-125-4k-c-9-0-4ku-5-1/AlorilThu, 11 Jun 2026 19:19:10 +0000BayesElohttps://tcecbayeselo.chessdom.org/?p=44534Currently playing: 126. STRO4K 5.0.1-c4ke 3.0 Previous game 125. 4k.c 9.0-4ku 5.1 0-1 added to BayesElo lists, result table: Position in r-mobility table and r-moblity points can give different order in some cases Pos Engine Rating % Points Games Direct encounter SB r-mobility points r-mobility -/- points 1. c4ke 3.0 3223&#177;33 85.7 30.0 35 0.0&#8230;<div class="single-entry-summary" morss_own_score="5.74845869297164" morss_score="9.62206464092703"> <span> Jun </span> <span> 11 </span> <span> 2026 </span> <div class="postie-post" morss_own_score="5.747211895910781" morss_score="36.76762005917608">Currently playing: <a href="http://tcec-chess.com/">126. STRO4K 5.0.1-c4ke 3.0</a> <h2>Previous game <a href="https://tcec-chess.com/#div=4k&amp;season=30&amp;game=125">125. 4k.c 9.0-4ku 5.1 0-1</a> added to BayesElo lists, result table:</h2> <p>Position in r-mobility table and r-moblity points can give different order in some cases</p> <table> <tr> <th>Pos</th> <th>Engine</th> <th>Rating</th> <th>%</th> <th>Points</th> <th>Games</th> <th>Direct encounter</th> <th><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sonneborn%E2%80%93Berger_score">SB</a></th> <th><a href="https://wiki.chessdom.org/R-Mobility#TCEC">r-mobility points</a></th> <th>r-mobility -/- points</th> </tr> <tr> <td> 1.</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> <td>3223±33</td> <td>85.7</td> <td><b>30.0</b></td> <td>35</td> <td>0.0</td> <td>428.25</td> <td>30.115355492</td> <td> 0.115355492</td> </tr> <tr> <td> 2.</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> <td>3232±36</td> <td>76.4</td> <td><b>27.5</b></td> <td>36</td> <td>0.0</td> <td>375.00</td> <td>27.572628975</td> <td> 0.072628975</td> </tr> <tr> <td> 3.</td> <td>4ku 5.1</td> <td>3092±55</td> <td>63.9</td> <td><b>23.0</b></td> <td>36</td> <td>0.0</td> <td>281.00</td> <td>22.597171783</td> <td>-0.402828217</td> </tr> <tr> <td> 4.</td> <td>4k.c 9.0</td> <td>2943±40</td> <td>56.9</td> <td><b>20.5</b></td> <td>36</td> <td>0.0</td> <td>230.00</td> <td>20.593261719</td> <td> 0.093261719</td> </tr> <tr> <td> 5.</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> <td>2991±53</td> <td>51.4</td> <td><b>18.0</b></td> <td>35</td> <td>0.0</td> <td>172.25</td> <td>18.121582031</td> <td> 0.121582031</td> </tr> <tr> <td> 6.</td> <td>molly e317a0c7b8</td> <td>2356±209</td> <td>16.7</td> <td><b>6.0</b></td> <td>36</td> <td>0.0</td> <td> 0.00</td> <td>6.000000000</td> <td> 0.000000000</td> </tr> <tr> <td> 7.</td> <td>pygone 2-11b142</td> <td>1680±130</td> <td>0.0</td> <td><b>0.0</b></td> <td>36</td> <td>0.0</td> <td> 0.00</td> <td>0.000000000</td> <td> 0.000000000</td> </tr> </table> <h3>R-mobility results as a table, not used as a tiebreak (see r-mobility points above)</h3> <p morss_own_score="6.0" morss_score="8.0"> G0.0==mate (including cursed mates), score(number of games), previous game was <b>-G0.0</b></p> <p>21 different goal results, 2 results G33.5 G36.5 not listed </p><table> <tr> <th>Pos</th> <th>Name</th> <th>G0.0</th> <th>G1.0</th> <th>G1.5</th> <th>G2.0</th> <th>G2.5</th> <th>G3.0</th> <th>G3.5</th> <th>G4.0</th> <th>G5.0</th> <th>G6.0</th> <th>G8.5</th> <th>G9.5</th> <th>G15.5</th> <th>G19.5</th> <th>G20.5</th> <th>G23.5</th> <th>G27.5</th> <th>G30.5</th> <th>G32.5</th> </tr> <tr> <td>1.</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> <td>25(25)</td> <td>1(1)</td> <td>-1(1)</td> <td>3(3)</td> <td>-1(1)</td> <td>1(1)</td> <td>-1(1)</td> <td>-1(1)</td> <td>-1(1)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2.</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> <td>19(23)</td> <td>1(1)</td> <td>1(1)</td> <td>-3(3)</td> <td>1(1)</td> <td>1(1)</td> <td>-1(1)</td> <td>-1(1)</td> <td>1(1)</td> <td>-1(1)</td> <td>-1(1)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>3.</td> <td>4ku 5.1</td> <td>10(20)</td> <td>-3(3)</td> <td>-1(1)</td> <td>-2(2)</td> <td>1(1)</td> <td>-1(1)</td> <td>1(1)</td> <td>-1(1)</td> <td>1(1)</td> <td>1(1)</td> <td>1(1)</td> <td>-1(1)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>4.</td> <td>4k.c 9.0</td> <td>5(25)</td> <td>1(3)</td> <td>-1(1)</td> <td>1(1)</td> <td>0(2)</td> <td>-1(1)</td> <td>-1(1)</td> <td>1(1)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>5.</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> <td>1(25)</td> <td>1(1)</td> <td>-1(1)</td> <td>1(1)</td> <td>2(2)</td> <td>-1(1)</td> <td>1(1)</td> <td>1(1)</td> <td>1(1)</td> <td>1(1)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>6.</td> <td>molly e317a0c7b8</td> <td>-24(36)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>7.</td> <td>pygone 2-11b142</td> <td>-36(36)</td> </tr> </table> <hr> <h2>Bayes Elo Ratings</h2> <p> Stockfish_13_CCRL is used as offset at 3526. Difference for some values in parenthesis if any. Created using <a href="https://www.remi-coulom.fr/Bayesian-Elo/">Bayesian-Elo</a> and some local scripts. </p> <p>See also <a href="https://tcec-chess.com/bayeselo.txt">BayesElo rating</a> based on previous and current season games (2 seasons). This is used in GUI and is the current rating. </p> <h2>TCEC rating</h2> <p> Ratings after last game. </p> <h3>All</h3> <table> <tr> <th>Rank</th> <th>Name</th> <th>Elo</th> <th>+</th> <th>–</th> <th>games</th> <th>score</th> <th>oppo.</th> <th>draws</th> </tr> <tr> <td>1</td> <td>Stockfish</td> <td>3808</td> <td>26</td> <td>26</td> <td>267</td> <td>62%</td> <td>3718</td> <td>47%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2</td> <td>LCZero</td> <td>3757</td> <td>26</td> <td>26</td> <td>250</td> <td>55%</td> <td>3717</td> <td>55%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>3</td> <td>Reckless</td> <td>3750</td> <td>21</td> <td>21</td> <td>384</td> <td>52%</td> <td>3736</td> <td>48%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>4</td> <td>Integral</td> <td>3718</td> <td>39</td> <td>39</td> <td>116</td> <td>52%</td> <td>3707</td> <td>50%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>5</td> <td>Torch</td> <td>3716</td> <td>25</td> <td>25</td> <td>297</td> <td>62%</td> <td>3627</td> <td>53%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>6</td> <td>PlentyChess</td> <td>3710</td> <td>37</td> <td>37</td> <td>123</td> <td>53%</td> <td>3688</td> <td>51%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>7</td> <td>Obsidian</td> <td>3694</td> <td>35</td> <td>35</td> <td>137</td> <td>49%</td> <td>3703</td> <td>55%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>8</td> <td>Ceres</td> <td>3680</td> <td>40</td> <td>40</td> <td>113</td> <td>59%</td> <td>3605</td> <td>53%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>9</td> <td>Stockfish_15_1G</td> <td>3668</td> <td>16</td> <td>16</td> <td>637</td> <td>56%</td> <td>3622</td> <td>52%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>10</td> <td>KomodoDragon</td> <td>3662</td> <td>47</td> <td>47</td> <td>72</td> <td>51%</td> <td>3657</td> <td>63%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>11</td> <td>RubiChess</td> <td>3662</td> <td>42</td> <td>42</td> <td>96</td> <td>53%</td> <td>3641</td> <td>52%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>12</td> <td>Berserk</td> <td>3659</td> <td>45</td> <td>45</td> <td>86</td> <td>43%</td> <td>3710</td> <td>47%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>13</td> <td>Pawnocchio</td> <td>3659</td> <td>27</td> <td>27</td> <td>236</td> <td>58%</td> <td>3602</td> <td>51%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>14</td> <td>Halogen</td> <td>3655</td> <td>29</td> <td>29</td> <td>202</td> <td>59%</td> <td>3590</td> <td>57%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>15</td> <td>Viridithas</td> <td>3648</td> <td>42</td> <td>42</td> <td>94</td> <td>52%</td> <td>3633</td> <td>63%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>16</td> <td>Stormphrax</td> <td>3646</td> <td>43</td> <td>43</td> <td>90</td> <td>49%</td> <td>3653</td> <td>54%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>17</td> <td>Caissa</td> <td>3632</td> <td>43</td> <td>43</td> <td>89</td> <td>48%</td> <td>3644</td> <td>58%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>18</td> <td>Clover</td> <td>3621</td> <td>29</td> <td>29</td> <td>196</td> <td>53%</td> <td>3605</td> <td>58%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>19</td> <td>Quanticade</td> <td>3608</td> <td>33</td> <td>33</td> <td>167</td> <td>58%</td> <td>3544</td> <td>52%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>20</td> <td>Stockfish_15_300M</td> <td>3607</td> <td>10</td> <td>10</td> <td>1672</td> <td>50%</td> <td>3607</td> <td>64%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>21</td> <td>Ginkgo</td> <td>3599</td> <td>43</td> <td>43</td> <td>90</td> <td>52%</td> <td>3583</td> <td>56%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>22</td> <td>Horsie</td> <td>3599</td> <td>41</td> <td>41</td> <td>104</td> <td>56%</td> <td>3559</td> <td>44%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>23</td> <td>Ethereal</td> <td>3594</td> <td>41</td> <td>41</td> <td>96</td> <td>47%</td> <td>3617</td> <td>58%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>24</td> <td>Uralochka</td> <td>3584</td> <td>49</td> <td>49</td> <td>74</td> <td>49%</td> <td>3587</td> <td>53%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>25</td> <td>rofChade</td> <td>3570</td> <td>46</td> <td>46</td> <td>79</td> <td>46%</td> <td>3601</td> <td>58%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>26</td> <td>Stockfish_15_100M</td> <td>3570</td> <td>7</td> <td>7</td> <td>3190</td> <td>54%</td> <td>3543</td> <td>68%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>27</td> <td>Seer</td> <td>3563</td> <td>45</td> <td>45</td> <td>80</td> <td>44%</td> <td>3600</td> <td>61%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>28</td> <td>Tarnished</td> <td>3562</td> <td>30</td> <td>30</td> <td>182</td> <td>52%</td> <td>3552</td> <td>58%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>29</td> <td>Booot</td> <td>3558</td> <td>47</td> <td>47</td> <td>76</td> <td>45%</td> <td>3595</td> <td>50%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>30</td> <td>Cinder</td> <td>3553</td> <td>56</td> <td>56</td> <td>54</td> <td>52%</td> <td>3542</td> <td>56%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>31</td> <td>Velvet</td> <td>3549</td> <td>47</td> <td>47</td> <td>80</td> <td>51%</td> <td>3542</td> <td>48%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>32</td> <td>Stoofvlees</td> <td>3542</td> <td>48</td> <td>48</td> <td>71</td> <td>43%</td> <td>3588</td> <td>58%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>33</td> <td>Heimdall</td> <td>3538</td> <td>37</td> <td>37</td> <td>122</td> <td>50%</td> <td>3539</td> <td>54%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>34</td> <td>Renegade</td> <td>3529</td> <td>37</td> <td>37</td> <td>124</td> <td>49%</td> <td>3538</td> <td>54%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>35</td> <td>Stockfish_13_CCRL</td> <td>3522</td> <td>9</td> <td>9</td> <td>2048</td> <td>51%</td> <td>3517</td> <td>69%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>36</td> <td>Stockfish_15_30M_4th</td> <td>3517</td> <td>6</td> <td>6</td> <td>5120</td> <td>51%</td> <td>3508</td> <td>69%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>37</td> <td>Igel</td> <td>3510</td> <td>47</td> <td>47</td> <td>74</td> <td>46%</td> <td>3537</td> <td>57%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>38</td> <td>Stockfish_15_30M</td> <td>3498</td> <td>7</td> <td>7</td> <td>3154</td> <td>49%</td> <td>3506</td> <td>66%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>39</td> <td>BlackMarlin</td> <td>3495</td> <td>48</td> <td>48</td> <td>73</td> <td>45%</td> <td>3533</td> <td>53%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>40</td> <td>Monty</td> <td>3471</td> <td>54</td> <td>54</td> <td>69</td> <td>57%</td> <td>3390</td> <td>35%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>41</td> <td>Arasan</td> <td>3462</td> <td>51</td> <td>51</td> <td>62</td> <td>38%</td> <td>3545</td> <td>60%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>42</td> <td>Tucano</td> <td>3462</td> <td>67</td> <td>67</td> <td>38</td> <td>38%</td> <td>3541</td> <td>45%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>43</td> <td>Weiss</td> <td>3461</td> <td>231</td> <td>231</td> <td>2</td> <td>75%</td> <td>3349</td> <td>50%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>44</td> <td>DeepSjeng</td> <td>3458</td> <td>49</td> <td>49</td> <td>74</td> <td>43%</td> <td>3506</td> <td>46%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>45</td> <td>Winter</td> <td>3457</td> <td>42</td> <td>42</td> <td>104</td> <td>49%</td> <td>3465</td> <td>41%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>46</td> <td>Serendipity</td> <td>3454</td> <td>58</td> <td>58</td> <td>52</td> <td>35%</td> <td>3551</td> <td>50%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>47</td> <td>Sirius</td> <td>3447</td> <td>59</td> <td>59</td> <td>54</td> <td>57%</td> <td>3394</td> <td>41%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>48</td> <td>Wasp</td> <td>3447</td> <td>63</td> <td>63</td> <td>42</td> <td>36%</td> <td>3541</td> <td>52%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>49</td> <td>Minic</td> <td>3444</td> <td>63</td> <td>63</td> <td>48</td> <td>55%</td> <td>3407</td> <td>40%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>50</td> <td>Stockfish_15_10M</td> <td>3427</td> <td>7</td> <td>7</td> <td>3136</td> <td>46%</td> <td>3456</td> <td>63%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>51</td> <td>Patricia</td> <td>3407</td> <td>43</td> <td>43</td> <td>96</td> <td>42%</td> <td>3464</td> <td>42%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>52</td> <td>Stockfish_15_3M</td> <td>3349</td> <td>9</td> <td>9</td> <td>2082</td> <td>51%</td> <td>3342</td> <td>59%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>53</td> <td>Lynx</td> <td>3322</td> <td>58</td> <td>58</td> <td>52</td> <td>46%</td> <td>3350</td> <td>50%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>54</td> <td>Bagatur</td> <td>3313</td> <td>73</td> <td>73</td> <td>42</td> <td>24%</td> <td>3500</td> <td>43%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>55</td> <td>Stockfish_15_1M</td> <td>3253</td> <td>9</td> <td>9</td> <td>2094</td> <td>52%</td> <td>3241</td> <td>56%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>56</td> <td>ChessFighter</td> <td>3246</td> <td>55</td> <td>55</td> <td>64</td> <td>40%</td> <td>3328</td> <td>48%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>57</td> <td>Princhess</td> <td>3241</td> <td>58</td> <td>58</td> <td>58</td> <td>34%</td> <td>3356</td> <td>47%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>58</td> <td>ice4</td> <td>3233(+1)</td> <td>36</td> <td>36</td> <td>178</td> <td>65%</td> <td>2992</td> <td>43%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>59</td> <td>c4ke</td> <td>3224(+1)</td> <td>33</td> <td>33</td> <td>203</td> <td>60%</td> <td>3038</td> <td>46%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>60</td> <td>LESS_STRO4K</td> <td>3148(-1)</td> <td>53</td> <td>53</td> <td>72</td> <td>63%</td> <td>3072</td> <td>39%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>61</td> <td>Stockfish_15_300k</td> <td>3129</td> <td>9</td> <td>9</td> <td>2104</td> <td>52%</td> <td>3113</td> <td>49%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>62</td> <td>Cheese</td> <td>3108</td> <td>89</td> <td>89</td> <td>30</td> <td>22%</td> <td>3349</td> <td>30%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>63</td> <td>4ku</td> <td>3096(+4)</td> <td>54</td> <td>54</td> <td>86(+1)</td> <td>66%</td> <td>2747</td> <td>33%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>64</td> <td>STRO4K</td> <td>2992(+1)</td> <td>53</td> <td>53</td> <td>97</td> <td>53%</td> <td>2793</td> <td>26%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>65</td> <td>Stockfish_15_100k</td> <td>2968</td> <td>10</td> <td>10</td> <td>2092</td> <td>54%</td> <td>2939</td> <td>39%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>66</td> <td>4k.c</td> <td>2941(-2)</td> <td>40</td> <td>40</td> <td>156(+1)</td> <td>38%</td> <td>2924</td> <td>29%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>67</td> <td>Stockfish_15_30k</td> <td>2740</td> <td>10</td> <td>10</td> <td>2052</td> <td>51%</td> <td>2730</td> <td>29%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>68</td> <td>Stockfish_15_10k</td> <td>2489</td> <td>12</td> <td>12</td> <td>2052</td> <td>55%</td> <td>2428</td> <td>19%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>69</td> <td>molly</td> <td>2355(-1)</td> <td>209</td> <td>209</td> <td>86</td> <td>17%</td> <td>2844</td> <td>0%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>70</td> <td>Stockfish_15_3k</td> <td>2115</td> <td>15</td> <td>15</td> <td>2058</td> <td>50%</td> <td>2102</td> <td>9%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>71</td> <td>Stockfish_15_1k</td> <td>1717</td> <td>22</td> <td>22</td> <td>1034</td> <td>7%</td> <td>2111</td> <td>8%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>72</td> <td>pygone</td> <td>1680</td> <td>130</td> <td>130</td> <td>104</td> <td>4%</td> <td>2777</td> <td>2%</td> </tr> </table> </div> </div> https://tcecbayeselo.chessdom.org/2026/06/11/tcec-season-30-4k-game-125-speculation-simulation/AlorilThu, 11 Jun 2026 18:11:06 +0000BayesElohttps://tcecbayeselo.chessdom.org/?p=44533For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post Situation before game, simulation about most common position 100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most &#62;=2., then most &#62;=3., etc..&#8230;<div class="single-entry-summary" morss_own_score="5.934426229508197" morss_score="9.901398706572417"> <span> Jun </span> <span> 11 </span> <span> 2026 </span> <div class="postie-post" morss_own_score="5.933944954128441" morss_score="29.933944954128442">For <b>standings with all tiebreaks</b> and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see <a href="https://tcecbayeselo.chessdom.org/2026/06/11/tcec-season-30-4k-game-124-ice4-6-1-1-pygone-2-11b142/">previous post</a> <h3>Situation before game, simulation about most common position</h3> <p morss_own_score="7.0" morss_score="9.0"> 100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most &gt;=2., then most &gt;=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results). </p> <p>eloAdvantage = 140.859 and eloDraw = 261.489 updated on 2022-03-15 based on 300 Season 21 and 22 DivP games. Scale=0.617564 based on rating list 2022-03-27</p><table> <tr> <th>Pos</th> <th>Name</th> <th>1.</th> <th>2.</th> <th>1-2.</th> <th>3.</th> <th>4.</th> <th>5.</th> <th>6.</th> <th>7.</th> </tr> <tr> <td>1.</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> <td><b>99.034%</b></td> <td>0.966%</td> <td><b>100.000%</b></td> </tr> <tr> <td>2.</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> <td>0.966%</td> <td><b>99.034%</b></td> <td><b>100.000%</b></td> </tr> <tr> <td>3.</td> <td>4ku 5.1</td> <td><b>99.046%</b></td> <td>0.950%</td> <td>0.004%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>4.</td> <td>4k.c 9.0</td> <td>0.949%</td> <td><b>91.500%</b></td> <td>7.551%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>5.</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> <td>0.005%</td> <td>7.550%</td> <td><b>92.445%</b></td> </tr> <tr> <td>6.</td> <td>molly e317a0c7b8</td> <td><b>100.000%</b></td> </tr> <tr> <td>7.</td> <td>pygone 2-11b142</td> <td><b>100.000%</b></td> </tr> </table> <h3>Top promotions</h3> <table> <tr> <th>Pos</th> <th>1.</th> <th>2.</th> </tr> <tr> <td>1.</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> <td>99.034%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2.</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> <td> 0.966%</td> </tr> </table> <h3>Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical</h3> <table> <tr> <td>1.</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> <td>100.000%</td> </tr> </table> <h3>Expected start time based on estimate of 0.98h/game</h3> <p> Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain. </p> <table> <tr> <th>UTC</th> <th>No</th> <th>White</th> <th>Black</th> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-11 19:09</td> <td>126</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-11 20:08</td> <td>127</td> <td>4k.c 9.0</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-11 21:06</td> <td>128</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> <td>4ku 5.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-11 22:05</td> <td>129</td> <td>molly e317a0c7b8</td> <td>pygone 2-11b142</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-11 23:04</td> <td>130</td> <td>4ku 5.1</td> <td>molly e317a0c7b8</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 00:02</td> <td>131</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 01:01</td> <td>132</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> <td>4k.c 9.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 02:00</td> <td>133</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 02:58</td> <td>134</td> <td>molly e317a0c7b8</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 03:57</td> <td>135</td> <td>pygone 2-11b142</td> <td>4ku 5.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 04:56</td> <td>136</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> <td>pygone 2-11b142</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 05:54</td> <td>137</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> <td>molly e317a0c7b8</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 06:53</td> <td>138</td> <td>4k.c 9.0</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 07:51</td> <td>139</td> <td>molly e317a0c7b8</td> <td>4k.c 9.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 08:50</td> <td>140</td> <td>pygone 2-11b142</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 09:49</td> <td>141</td> <td>4ku 5.1</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 10:47</td> <td>142</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> <td>4ku 5.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 11:46</td> <td>143</td> <td>4k.c 9.0</td> <td>pygone 2-11b142</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 12:45</td> <td>144</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> <td>molly e317a0c7b8</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 13:43</td> <td>145</td> <td>pygone 2-11b142</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 14:42</td> <td>146</td> <td>4ku 5.1</td> <td>4k.c 9.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 15:41</td> <td>147</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 16:39</td> <td>148</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> <td>4k.c 9.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 17:38</td> <td>149</td> <td>4ku 5.1</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 18:36</td> <td>150</td> <td>pygone 2-11b142</td> <td>molly e317a0c7b8</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 19:35</td> <td>151</td> <td>molly e317a0c7b8</td> <td>4ku 5.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 20:34</td> <td>152</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 21:32</td> <td>153</td> <td>4k.c 9.0</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 22:31</td> <td>154</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 23:30</td> <td>155</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> <td>molly e317a0c7b8</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-13 00:28</td> <td>156</td> <td>4ku 5.1</td> <td>pygone 2-11b142</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-13 01:27</td> <td>157</td> <td>pygone 2-11b142</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-13 02:26</td> <td>158</td> <td>molly e317a0c7b8</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-13 03:24</td> <td>159</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> <td>4k.c 9.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-13 04:23</td> <td>160</td> <td>4k.c 9.0</td> <td>molly e317a0c7b8</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-13 05:21</td> <td>161</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> <td>pygone 2-11b142</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-13 06:20</td> <td>162</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> <td>4ku 5.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-13 07:19</td> <td>163</td> <td>4ku 5.1</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-13 08:17</td> <td>164</td> <td>pygone 2-11b142</td> <td>4k.c 9.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-13 09:16</td> <td>165</td> <td>molly e317a0c7b8</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-13 10:15</td> <td>166</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> <td>pygone 2-11b142</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-13 11:13</td> <td>167</td> <td>4k.c 9.0</td> <td>4ku 5.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-13 12:12</td> <td>168</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> </tr> </table> </div> </div> https://tcecbayeselo.chessdom.org/2026/06/11/tcec-season-30-4k-game-124-ice4-6-1-1-pygone-2-11b142/AlorilThu, 11 Jun 2026 18:10:00 +0000BayesElohttps://tcecbayeselo.chessdom.org/?p=44532Currently playing: 125. 4k.c 9.0-4ku 5.1 Previous game 124. ice4 6.1.1-pygone 2-11b142 1-0 added to BayesElo lists, result table: Position in r-mobility table and r-moblity points can give different order in some cases Pos Engine Rating % Points Games Direct encounter SB r-mobility points r-mobility -/- points 1. c4ke 3.0 3223&#177;33 85.7 30.0 35 0.0&#8230;<div class="single-entry-summary" morss_own_score="5.73167701863354" morss_score="9.596845557959384"> <span> Jun </span> <span> 11 </span> <span> 2026 </span> <div class="postie-post" morss_own_score="5.730337078651686" morss_score="36.75074524191699">Currently playing: <a href="http://tcec-chess.com/">125. 4k.c 9.0-4ku 5.1</a> <h2>Previous game <a href="https://tcec-chess.com/#div=4k&amp;season=30&amp;game=124">124. ice4 6.1.1-pygone 2-11b142 1-0</a> added to BayesElo lists, result table:</h2> <p>Position in r-mobility table and r-moblity points can give different order in some cases</p> <table> <tr> <th>Pos</th> <th>Engine</th> <th>Rating</th> <th>%</th> <th>Points</th> <th>Games</th> <th>Direct encounter</th> <th><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sonneborn%E2%80%93Berger_score">SB</a></th> <th><a href="https://wiki.chessdom.org/R-Mobility#TCEC">r-mobility points</a></th> <th>r-mobility -/- points</th> </tr> <tr> <td> 1.</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> <td>3223±33</td> <td>85.7</td> <td><b>30.0</b></td> <td>35</td> <td>0.0</td> <td>423.75</td> <td>30.115355492</td> <td> 0.115355492</td> </tr> <tr> <td> 2.</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> <td>3232±36</td> <td>76.4</td> <td><b>27.5</b></td> <td>36</td> <td>0.0</td> <td>371.00</td> <td>27.572628975</td> <td> 0.072628975</td> </tr> <tr> <td> 3.</td> <td>4ku 5.1</td> <td>3092±55</td> <td>62.9</td> <td><b>22.0</b></td> <td>35</td> <td>0.0</td> <td>260.50</td> <td>21.597171783</td> <td>-0.402828217</td> </tr> <tr> <td> 4.</td> <td>4k.c 9.0</td> <td>2943±40</td> <td>58.6</td> <td><b>20.5</b></td> <td>35</td> <td>0.0</td> <td>228.00</td> <td>20.593261719</td> <td> 0.093261719</td> </tr> <tr> <td> 5.</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> <td>2991±53</td> <td>51.4</td> <td><b>18.0</b></td> <td>35</td> <td>0.0</td> <td>169.75</td> <td>18.121582031</td> <td> 0.121582031</td> </tr> <tr> <td> 6.</td> <td>molly e317a0c7b8</td> <td>2356±209</td> <td>16.7</td> <td><b>6.0</b></td> <td>36</td> <td>0.0</td> <td> 0.00</td> <td>6.000000000</td> <td> 0.000000000</td> </tr> <tr> <td> 7.</td> <td>pygone 2-11b142</td> <td>1680±130</td> <td>0.0</td> <td><b>0.0</b></td> <td>36</td> <td>0.0</td> <td> 0.00</td> <td>0.000000000</td> <td> 0.000000000</td> </tr> </table> <h3>R-mobility results as a table, not used as a tiebreak (see r-mobility points above)</h3> <p morss_own_score="6.0" morss_score="8.0"> G0.0==mate (including cursed mates), score(number of games), previous game was <b>G0.0</b></p> <p>21 different goal results, 2 results G33.5 G36.5 not listed </p><table> <tr> <th>Pos</th> <th>Name</th> <th>G0.0</th> <th>G1.0</th> <th>G1.5</th> <th>G2.0</th> <th>G2.5</th> <th>G3.0</th> <th>G3.5</th> <th>G4.0</th> <th>G5.0</th> <th>G6.0</th> <th>G8.5</th> <th>G9.5</th> <th>G15.5</th> <th>G19.5</th> <th>G20.5</th> <th>G23.5</th> <th>G27.5</th> <th>G30.5</th> <th>G32.5</th> </tr> <tr> <td>1.</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> <td>25(25)</td> <td>1(1)</td> <td>-1(1)</td> <td>3(3)</td> <td>-1(1)</td> <td>1(1)</td> <td>-1(1)</td> <td>-1(1)</td> <td>-1(1)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2.</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> <td>19(23)</td> <td>1(1)</td> <td>1(1)</td> <td>-3(3)</td> <td>1(1)</td> <td>1(1)</td> <td>-1(1)</td> <td>-1(1)</td> <td>1(1)</td> <td>-1(1)</td> <td>-1(1)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>3.</td> <td>4ku 5.1</td> <td>9(19)</td> <td>-3(3)</td> <td>-1(1)</td> <td>-2(2)</td> <td>1(1)</td> <td>-1(1)</td> <td>1(1)</td> <td>-1(1)</td> <td>1(1)</td> <td>1(1)</td> <td>1(1)</td> <td>-1(1)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>4.</td> <td>4k.c 9.0</td> <td>6(24)</td> <td>1(3)</td> <td>-1(1)</td> <td>1(1)</td> <td>0(2)</td> <td>-1(1)</td> <td>-1(1)</td> <td>1(1)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>5.</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> <td>1(25)</td> <td>1(1)</td> <td>-1(1)</td> <td>1(1)</td> <td>2(2)</td> <td>-1(1)</td> <td>1(1)</td> <td>1(1)</td> <td>1(1)</td> <td>1(1)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>6.</td> <td>molly e317a0c7b8</td> <td>-24(36)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>7.</td> <td>pygone 2-11b142</td> <td>-36(36)</td> </tr> </table> <hr> <h2>Bayes Elo Ratings</h2> <p> Stockfish_13_CCRL is used as offset at 3526. Difference for some values in parenthesis if any. Created using <a href="https://www.remi-coulom.fr/Bayesian-Elo/">Bayesian-Elo</a> and some local scripts. </p> <p>See also <a href="https://tcec-chess.com/bayeselo.txt">BayesElo rating</a> based on previous and current season games (2 seasons). This is used in GUI and is the current rating. </p> <h2>TCEC rating</h2> <p> Ratings after last game. </p> <h3>All</h3> <table> <tr> <th>Rank</th> <th>Name</th> <th>Elo</th> <th>+</th> <th>–</th> <th>games</th> <th>score</th> <th>oppo.</th> <th>draws</th> </tr> <tr> <td>1</td> <td>Stockfish</td> <td>3808</td> <td>26</td> <td>26</td> <td>267</td> <td>62%</td> <td>3718</td> <td>47%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2</td> <td>LCZero</td> <td>3757</td> <td>26</td> <td>26</td> <td>250</td> <td>55%</td> <td>3717</td> <td>55%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>3</td> <td>Reckless</td> <td>3750</td> <td>21</td> <td>21</td> <td>384</td> <td>52%</td> <td>3736</td> <td>48%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>4</td> <td>Integral</td> <td>3718</td> <td>39</td> <td>39</td> <td>116</td> <td>52%</td> <td>3707</td> <td>50%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>5</td> <td>Torch</td> <td>3716</td> <td>25</td> <td>25</td> <td>297</td> <td>62%</td> <td>3627</td> <td>53%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>6</td> <td>PlentyChess</td> <td>3710</td> <td>37</td> <td>37</td> <td>123</td> <td>53%</td> <td>3688</td> <td>51%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>7</td> <td>Obsidian</td> <td>3694</td> <td>35</td> <td>35</td> <td>137</td> <td>49%</td> <td>3703</td> <td>55%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>8</td> <td>Ceres</td> <td>3680</td> <td>40</td> <td>40</td> <td>113</td> <td>59%</td> <td>3605</td> <td>53%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>9</td> <td>Stockfish_15_1G</td> <td>3668</td> <td>16</td> <td>16</td> <td>637</td> <td>56%</td> <td>3622</td> <td>52%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>10</td> <td>KomodoDragon</td> <td>3662</td> <td>47</td> <td>47</td> <td>72</td> <td>51%</td> <td>3657</td> <td>63%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>11</td> <td>RubiChess</td> <td>3662</td> <td>42</td> <td>42</td> <td>96</td> <td>53%</td> <td>3641</td> <td>52%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>12</td> <td>Berserk</td> <td>3659</td> <td>45</td> <td>45</td> <td>86</td> <td>43%</td> <td>3710</td> <td>47%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>13</td> <td>Pawnocchio</td> <td>3659</td> <td>27</td> <td>27</td> <td>236</td> <td>58%</td> <td>3602</td> <td>51%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>14</td> <td>Halogen</td> <td>3655</td> <td>29</td> <td>29</td> <td>202</td> <td>59%</td> <td>3590</td> <td>57%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>15</td> <td>Viridithas</td> <td>3648</td> <td>42</td> <td>42</td> <td>94</td> <td>52%</td> <td>3633</td> <td>63%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>16</td> <td>Stormphrax</td> <td>3646</td> <td>43</td> <td>43</td> <td>90</td> <td>49%</td> <td>3653</td> <td>54%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>17</td> <td>Caissa</td> <td>3632</td> <td>43</td> <td>43</td> <td>89</td> <td>48%</td> <td>3644</td> <td>58%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>18</td> <td>Clover</td> <td>3621</td> <td>29</td> <td>29</td> <td>196</td> <td>53%</td> <td>3605</td> <td>58%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>19</td> <td>Quanticade</td> <td>3608</td> <td>33</td> <td>33</td> <td>167</td> <td>58%</td> <td>3543</td> <td>52%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>20</td> <td>Stockfish_15_300M</td> <td>3607</td> <td>10</td> <td>10</td> <td>1672</td> <td>50%</td> <td>3607</td> <td>64%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>21</td> <td>Ginkgo</td> <td>3599</td> <td>43</td> <td>43</td> <td>90</td> <td>52%</td> <td>3583</td> <td>56%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>22</td> <td>Horsie</td> <td>3599</td> <td>41</td> <td>41</td> <td>104</td> <td>56%</td> <td>3559</td> <td>44%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>23</td> <td>Ethereal</td> <td>3594</td> <td>41</td> <td>41</td> <td>96</td> <td>47%</td> <td>3617</td> <td>58%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>24</td> <td>Uralochka</td> <td>3584</td> <td>49</td> <td>49</td> <td>74</td> <td>49%</td> <td>3587</td> <td>53%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>25</td> <td>rofChade</td> <td>3570</td> <td>46</td> <td>46</td> <td>79</td> <td>46%</td> <td>3601</td> <td>58%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>26</td> <td>Stockfish_15_100M</td> <td>3570</td> <td>7</td> <td>7</td> <td>3190</td> <td>54%</td> <td>3543</td> <td>68%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>27</td> <td>Seer</td> <td>3563</td> <td>45</td> <td>45</td> <td>80</td> <td>44%</td> <td>3600</td> <td>61%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>28</td> <td>Tarnished</td> <td>3562</td> <td>30</td> <td>30</td> <td>182</td> <td>52%</td> <td>3552</td> <td>58%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>29</td> <td>Booot</td> <td>3558</td> <td>47</td> <td>47</td> <td>76</td> <td>45%</td> <td>3595</td> <td>50%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>30</td> <td>Cinder</td> <td>3553</td> <td>56</td> <td>56</td> <td>54</td> <td>52%</td> <td>3542</td> <td>56%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>31</td> <td>Velvet</td> <td>3549</td> <td>47</td> <td>47</td> <td>80</td> <td>51%</td> <td>3542</td> <td>48%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>32</td> <td>Stoofvlees</td> <td>3542</td> <td>48</td> <td>48</td> <td>71</td> <td>43%</td> <td>3588</td> <td>58%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>33</td> <td>Heimdall</td> <td>3538</td> <td>37</td> <td>37</td> <td>122</td> <td>50%</td> <td>3539</td> <td>54%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>34</td> <td>Renegade</td> <td>3529</td> <td>37</td> <td>37</td> <td>124</td> <td>49%</td> <td>3538</td> <td>54%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>35</td> <td>Stockfish_13_CCRL</td> <td>3522</td> <td>9</td> <td>9</td> <td>2048</td> <td>51%</td> <td>3517</td> <td>69%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>36</td> <td>Stockfish_15_30M_4th</td> <td>3517</td> <td>6</td> <td>6</td> <td>5120</td> <td>51%</td> <td>3508</td> <td>69%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>37</td> <td>Igel</td> <td>3510</td> <td>47</td> <td>47</td> <td>74</td> <td>46%</td> <td>3537</td> <td>57%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>38</td> <td>Stockfish_15_30M</td> <td>3498</td> <td>7</td> <td>7</td> <td>3154</td> <td>49%</td> <td>3506</td> <td>66%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>39</td> <td>BlackMarlin</td> <td>3495</td> <td>48</td> <td>48</td> <td>73</td> <td>45%</td> <td>3533</td> <td>53%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>40</td> <td>Monty</td> <td>3471</td> <td>54</td> <td>54</td> <td>69</td> <td>57%</td> <td>3390</td> <td>35%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>41</td> <td>Arasan</td> <td>3462</td> <td>51</td> <td>51</td> <td>62</td> <td>38%</td> <td>3545</td> <td>60%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>42</td> <td>Tucano</td> <td>3462</td> <td>67</td> <td>67</td> <td>38</td> <td>38%</td> <td>3541</td> <td>45%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>43</td> <td>Weiss</td> <td>3461</td> <td>231</td> <td>231</td> <td>2</td> <td>75%</td> <td>3349</td> <td>50%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>44</td> <td>DeepSjeng</td> <td>3458</td> <td>49</td> <td>49</td> <td>74</td> <td>43%</td> <td>3506</td> <td>46%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>45</td> <td>Winter</td> <td>3457</td> <td>42</td> <td>42</td> <td>104</td> <td>49%</td> <td>3465</td> <td>41%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>46</td> <td>Serendipity</td> <td>3454</td> <td>58</td> <td>58</td> <td>52</td> <td>35%</td> <td>3551</td> <td>50%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>47</td> <td>Sirius</td> <td>3447</td> <td>59</td> <td>59</td> <td>54</td> <td>57%</td> <td>3394</td> <td>41%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>48</td> <td>Wasp</td> <td>3447</td> <td>63</td> <td>63</td> <td>42</td> <td>36%</td> <td>3541</td> <td>52%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>49</td> <td>Minic</td> <td>3444</td> <td>63</td> <td>63</td> <td>48</td> <td>55%</td> <td>3407</td> <td>40%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>50</td> <td>Stockfish_15_10M</td> <td>3427</td> <td>7</td> <td>7</td> <td>3136</td> <td>46%</td> <td>3456</td> <td>63%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>51</td> <td>Patricia</td> <td>3407</td> <td>43</td> <td>43</td> <td>96</td> <td>42%</td> <td>3464</td> <td>42%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>52</td> <td>Stockfish_15_3M</td> <td>3349</td> <td>9</td> <td>9</td> <td>2082</td> <td>51%</td> <td>3342</td> <td>59%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>53</td> <td>Lynx</td> <td>3322</td> <td>58</td> <td>58</td> <td>52</td> <td>46%</td> <td>3350</td> <td>50%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>54</td> <td>Bagatur</td> <td>3313</td> <td>73</td> <td>73</td> <td>42</td> <td>24%</td> <td>3500</td> <td>43%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>55</td> <td>Stockfish_15_1M</td> <td>3253</td> <td>9</td> <td>9</td> <td>2094</td> <td>52%</td> <td>3241</td> <td>56%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>56</td> <td>ChessFighter</td> <td>3246</td> <td>55</td> <td>55</td> <td>64</td> <td>40%</td> <td>3328</td> <td>48%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>57</td> <td>Princhess</td> <td>3241</td> <td>58</td> <td>58</td> <td>58</td> <td>34%</td> <td>3356</td> <td>47%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>58</td> <td>ice4</td> <td>3232</td> <td>36</td> <td>36</td> <td>178(+1)</td> <td>65%</td> <td>2991</td> <td>43%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>59</td> <td>c4ke</td> <td>3223</td> <td>33</td> <td>33</td> <td>203</td> <td>60%</td> <td>3038</td> <td>46%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>60</td> <td>LESS_STRO4K</td> <td>3149</td> <td>53</td> <td>53</td> <td>72</td> <td>63%</td> <td>3074</td> <td>39%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>61</td> <td>Stockfish_15_300k</td> <td>3129</td> <td>9</td> <td>9</td> <td>2104</td> <td>52%</td> <td>3113</td> <td>49%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>62</td> <td>Cheese</td> <td>3108</td> <td>89</td> <td>89</td> <td>30</td> <td>22%</td> <td>3349</td> <td>30%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>63</td> <td>4ku</td> <td>3092</td> <td>55</td> <td>55</td> <td>85</td> <td>66%</td> <td>2744</td> <td>33%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>64</td> <td>STRO4K</td> <td>2991</td> <td>53</td> <td>53</td> <td>97</td> <td>53%</td> <td>2793</td> <td>26%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>65</td> <td>Stockfish_15_100k</td> <td>2968</td> <td>10</td> <td>10</td> <td>2092</td> <td>54%</td> <td>2939</td> <td>39%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>66</td> <td>4k.c</td> <td>2943</td> <td>40</td> <td>40</td> <td>155</td> <td>39%</td> <td>2923</td> <td>30%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>67</td> <td>Stockfish_15_30k</td> <td>2740</td> <td>10</td> <td>10</td> <td>2052</td> <td>51%</td> <td>2730</td> <td>29%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>68</td> <td>Stockfish_15_10k</td> <td>2489</td> <td>12</td> <td>12</td> <td>2052</td> <td>55%</td> <td>2428</td> <td>19%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>69</td> <td>molly</td> <td>2356</td> <td>209</td> <td>209</td> <td>86</td> <td>17%</td> <td>2843</td> <td>0%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>70</td> <td>Stockfish_15_3k</td> <td>2115</td> <td>15</td> <td>15</td> <td>2058</td> <td>50%</td> <td>2102</td> <td>9%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>71</td> <td>Stockfish_15_1k</td> <td>1717</td> <td>22</td> <td>22</td> <td>1034</td> <td>7%</td> <td>2111</td> <td>8%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>72</td> <td>pygone</td> <td>1680</td> <td>130</td> <td>130</td> <td>104(+1)</td> <td>4%</td> <td>2777</td> <td>2%</td> </tr> </table> </div> </div> https://tcecbayeselo.chessdom.org/2026/06/11/tcec-season-30-4k-game-124-speculation-simulation/AlorilThu, 11 Jun 2026 17:32:24 +0000BayesElohttps://tcecbayeselo.chessdom.org/?p=44531For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post Situation before game, simulation about most common position 100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most &#62;=2., then most &#62;=3., etc..&#8230;<div class="single-entry-summary" morss_own_score="5.935135135135135" morss_score="9.902467258547112"> <span> Jun </span> <span> 11 </span> <span> 2026 </span> <div class="postie-post" morss_own_score="5.9346642468239565" morss_score="29.934664246823957">For <b>standings with all tiebreaks</b> and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see <a href="https://tcecbayeselo.chessdom.org/2026/06/11/tcec-season-30-4k-game-123-molly-e317a0c7b8-ice4-6-1-1/">previous post</a> <h3>Situation before game, simulation about most common position</h3> <p morss_own_score="7.0" morss_score="9.0"> 100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most &gt;=2., then most &gt;=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results). </p> <p>eloAdvantage = 140.859 and eloDraw = 261.489 updated on 2022-03-15 based on 300 Season 21 and 22 DivP games. Scale=0.617564 based on rating list 2022-03-27</p><table> <tr> <th>Pos</th> <th>Name</th> <th>1.</th> <th>2.</th> <th>1-2.</th> <th>3.</th> <th>4.</th> <th>5.</th> <th>6.</th> <th>7.</th> </tr> <tr> <td>1.</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> <td><b>99.079%</b></td> <td>0.921%</td> <td><b>100.000%</b></td> </tr> <tr> <td>2.</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> <td>0.921%</td> <td><b>99.079%</b></td> <td><b>100.000%</b></td> </tr> <tr> <td>3.</td> <td>4ku 5.1</td> <td><b>99.034%</b></td> <td>0.961%</td> <td>0.005%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>4.</td> <td>4k.c 9.0</td> <td>0.956%</td> <td><b>91.249%</b></td> <td>7.795%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>5.</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> <td>0.010%</td> <td>7.790%</td> <td><b>92.200%</b></td> </tr> <tr> <td>6.</td> <td>molly e317a0c7b8</td> <td><b>100.000%</b></td> </tr> <tr> <td>7.</td> <td>pygone 2-11b142</td> <td><b>100.000%</b></td> </tr> </table> <h3>Top promotions</h3> <table> <tr> <th>Pos</th> <th>1.</th> <th>2.</th> </tr> <tr> <td>1.</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> <td>99.079%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2.</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> <td> 0.921%</td> </tr> </table> <h3>Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical</h3> <table> <tr> <td>1.</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> <td>100.000%</td> </tr> </table> <h3>Expected start time based on estimate of 0.98h/game</h3> <p> Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain. </p> <table> <tr> <th>UTC</th> <th>No</th> <th>White</th> <th>Black</th> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-11 18:31</td> <td>125</td> <td>4k.c 9.0</td> <td>4ku 5.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-11 19:29</td> <td>126</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-11 20:28</td> <td>127</td> <td>4k.c 9.0</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-11 21:27</td> <td>128</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> <td>4ku 5.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-11 22:26</td> <td>129</td> <td>molly e317a0c7b8</td> <td>pygone 2-11b142</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-11 23:25</td> <td>130</td> <td>4ku 5.1</td> <td>molly e317a0c7b8</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 00:23</td> <td>131</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 01:22</td> <td>132</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> <td>4k.c 9.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 02:21</td> <td>133</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 03:20</td> <td>134</td> <td>molly e317a0c7b8</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 04:19</td> <td>135</td> <td>pygone 2-11b142</td> <td>4ku 5.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 05:17</td> <td>136</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> <td>pygone 2-11b142</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 06:16</td> <td>137</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> <td>molly e317a0c7b8</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 07:15</td> <td>138</td> <td>4k.c 9.0</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 08:14</td> <td>139</td> <td>molly e317a0c7b8</td> <td>4k.c 9.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 09:13</td> <td>140</td> <td>pygone 2-11b142</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 10:11</td> <td>141</td> <td>4ku 5.1</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 11:10</td> <td>142</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> <td>4ku 5.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 12:09</td> <td>143</td> <td>4k.c 9.0</td> <td>pygone 2-11b142</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 13:08</td> <td>144</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> <td>molly e317a0c7b8</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 14:07</td> <td>145</td> <td>pygone 2-11b142</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 15:05</td> <td>146</td> <td>4ku 5.1</td> <td>4k.c 9.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 16:04</td> <td>147</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 17:03</td> <td>148</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> <td>4k.c 9.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 18:02</td> <td>149</td> <td>4ku 5.1</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 19:01</td> <td>150</td> <td>pygone 2-11b142</td> <td>molly e317a0c7b8</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 19:59</td> <td>151</td> <td>molly e317a0c7b8</td> <td>4ku 5.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 20:58</td> <td>152</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 21:57</td> <td>153</td> <td>4k.c 9.0</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 22:56</td> <td>154</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-12 23:55</td> <td>155</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> <td>molly e317a0c7b8</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-13 00:53</td> <td>156</td> <td>4ku 5.1</td> <td>pygone 2-11b142</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-13 01:52</td> <td>157</td> <td>pygone 2-11b142</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-13 02:51</td> <td>158</td> <td>molly e317a0c7b8</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-13 03:50</td> <td>159</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> <td>4k.c 9.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-13 04:49</td> <td>160</td> <td>4k.c 9.0</td> <td>molly e317a0c7b8</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-13 05:47</td> <td>161</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> <td>pygone 2-11b142</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-13 06:46</td> <td>162</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> <td>4ku 5.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-13 07:45</td> <td>163</td> <td>4ku 5.1</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-13 08:44</td> <td>164</td> <td>pygone 2-11b142</td> <td>4k.c 9.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-13 09:43</td> <td>165</td> <td>molly e317a0c7b8</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-13 10:41</td> <td>166</td> <td>ice4 6.1.1</td> <td>pygone 2-11b142</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-13 11:40</td> <td>167</td> <td>4k.c 9.0</td> <td>4ku 5.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026-06-13 12:39</td> <td>168</td> <td>STRO4K 5.0.1</td> <td>c4ke 3.0</td> </tr> </table> </div> </div>