TCEC Bayes Elo

TCEC Season 29, Sufi, Game 100: Stockfish dev-20260318-d173a065-Reckless 0.10.0-dev-b5462f11

Aloril — Wed, 15 Apr 2026 16:35:29 +0000

Currently playing: 101. ?-?

Previous game 100. Stockfish dev-20260318-d173a065-Reckless 0.10.0-dev-b5462f11 1-0 added to BayesElo lists, result table:

Position in r-mobility table and r-moblity points can give different order in some cases

Pos	Engine	Rating	%	Points	Games	Direct encounter	SB	r-mobility points	r-mobility -/- points
1.	Stockfish dev-20260318-d173a065	3808±22	59.0	59.0	100	0.0	2419.00	58.788201332	-0.211798668
2.	Reckless 0.10.0-dev-b5462f11	3750±25	41.0	41.0	100	0.0	2419.00	41.211798668	0.211798668

R-mobility results as a table, not used as a tiebreak (see r-mobility points above)

G0.0==mate (including cursed mates), score(number of games), previous game was G0.0

17 different goal results

Pos	Name	G0.0	G1.0	G2.0	G3.0	G4.0	G5.0	G6.0	G8.0	G9.5	G15.5	G18.5	G20.5	G21.5	G22.5	G23.5	G24.5	G31.5
1.	Stockfish dev-20260318-d173a065	18(64)	-1(3)	-3(5)	1(3)	-1(3)	2(2)	1(3)	-1(1)	1(1)	-1(3)	-1(1)	-1(1)	-1(1)	-3(3)	3(3)	0(2)	-1(1)
2.	Reckless 0.10.0-dev-b5462f11	-18(64)	1(3)	3(5)	-1(3)	1(3)	-2(2)	-1(3)	1(1)	-1(1)	1(3)	1(1)	1(1)	1(1)	3(3)	-3(3)	0(2)	1(1)

Bayes Elo Ratings

Stockfish_13_CCRL is used as offset at 3526. Difference for some values in parenthesis if any. Created using Bayesian-Elo and some local scripts.

See also BayesElo rating based on previous and current season games (2 seasons). This is used in GUI and is the current rating.

TCEC rating

Ratings after last game.

All

Rank	Name	Elo	+	–	games	score	oppo.	draws
1	Stockfish	3809(+1)	22	22	367(+1)	61%	3727	46%
2	LCZero	3755	26	26	250	51%	3740	52%
3	Reckless	3750	25	25	284(+1)	53%	3728	48%
4	Integral	3718	39	39	116	52%	3706	50%
5	Torch	3715	24	24	297	62%	3626	53%
6	PlentyChess	3709	37	37	123	53%	3688	51%
7	Obsidian	3693	35	35	137	49%	3702	55%
8	Ceres	3679	40	40	113	59%	3604	53%
9	Stockfish_15_1G	3668	16	16	637	56%	3622	52%
10	KomodoDragon	3661(-1)	47	47	72	51%	3656	63%
11	RubiChess	3661	42	42	96	53%	3640	52%
12	Berserk	3658	45	45	86	43%	3709	47%
13	Pawnocchio	3658	27	27	236	58%	3601	51%
14	Halogen	3654	29	29	202	59%	3589	57%
15	Viridithas	3647	42	42	94	52%	3633	63%
16	Stormphrax	3645	43	43	90	49%	3652	54%
17	Caissa	3631	43	43	89	48%	3644	58%
18	Clover	3620	29	29	196	53%	3604	58%
19	Quanticade	3607	33	33	167	58%	3543	52%
20	Stockfish_15_300M	3607	10	10	1672	50%	3607	64%
21	Ginkgo	3599	43	43	90	52%	3583	56%
22	Horsie	3599	41	41	104	56%	3558	44%
23	Ethereal	3594	41	41	96	47%	3616	58%
24	Uralochka	3583	48	48	74	49%	3586	53%
25	Stockfish_15_100M	3570	7	7	3190	54%	3543	68%
26	rofChade	3569	46	46	79	46%	3601	58%
27	Seer	3562	45	45	80	44%	3600	61%
28	Tarnished	3562	30	30	182	52%	3551	58%
29	Booot	3557	47	47	76	45%	3594	50%
30	Cinder	3552	55	55	54	52%	3542	56%
31	Velvet	3548	47	47	80	51%	3541	48%
32	Stoofvlees	3541	48	48	71	43%	3587	58%
33	Heimdall	3538	37	37	122	50%	3539	54%
34	Renegade	3528	37	37	124	49%	3537	54%
35	Stockfish_13_CCRL	3522	9	9	2048	51%	3517	69%
36	Stockfish_15_30M_4th	3517	6	6	5120	51%	3508	69%
37	Igel	3509	47	47	74	46%	3536	57%
38	Stockfish_15_30M	3498	7	7	3154	49%	3506	66%
39	BlackMarlin	3494	48	48	73	45%	3532	53%
40	Monty	3470	54	54	69	57%	3386	35%
41	Arasan	3462	51	51	62	38%	3544	60%
42	Weiss	3462	230	230	2	75%	3350	50%
43	Tucano	3461	66	66	38	38%	3540	45%
44	DeepSjeng	3457	49	49	74	43%	3505	46%
45	Winter	3456	42	42	104	49%	3463	41%
46	Serendipity	3453	57	57	52	35%	3550	50%
47	Wasp	3446	63	63	42	36%	3541	52%
48	Sirius	3444	59	59	54	57%	3390	41%
49	Minic	3440	63	63	48	55%	3401	40%
50	Stockfish_15_10M	3427	7	7	3136	46%	3456	63%
51	Patricia	3404	43	43	96	42%	3461	42%
52	Stockfish_15_3M	3350	9	9	2080	51%	3342	59%
53	Lynx	3318	58	58	52	46%	3346	50%
54	Bagatur	3312	72	72	42	24%	3499	43%
55	Stockfish_15_1M	3254	9	9	2082	52%	3242	56%
56	ice4	3249	41	41	126	62%	3040	47%
57	ChessFighter	3242	55	55	64	40%	3325	48%
58	Princhess	3236	58	58	58	34%	3352	47%
59	c4ke	3227	37	37	154	56%	3084	47%
60	Stockfish_15_300k	3129	9	9	2076	52%	3113	49%
61	Cheese	3099	90	90	30	22%	3341	30%
62	4ku	3091	73	73	50	68%	2721	24%
63	LESS_STRO4K	3058	56	56	72	63%	2989	39%
64	STRO4K	2998	71	71	54	57%	2751	22%
65	Stockfish_15_100k	2968	10	10	2070	54%	2938	39%
66	4k.c	2822	51	51	105	31%	2888	24%
67	Stockfish_15_30k	2740	10	10	2058	51%	2731	29%
68	Stockfish_15_10k	2489	12	12	2057	55%	2429	18%
69	molly	2425	171	171	50	18%	2808	0%
70	Stockfish_15_3k	2116	15	15	2052	50%	2104	9%
71	Stockfish_15_1k	1718	22	22	1031	7%	2112	7%
72	pygone	1542	174	174	59	2%	2775	0%

TCEC Season 29, Sufi, Game 100 speculation simulation

Aloril — Wed, 15 Apr 2026 12:01:47 +0000

Apr 15 2026

For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2. Columns 1.-2. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. R-mobility not yet used in simulations except as biased random().

eloAdvantage = 140.859 and eloDraw = 261.489 updated on 2022-03-15 based on 300 Season 21 and 22 DivP games. Scale=0.617564 based on rating list 2022-03-27

Pos	Name	1.	2.
1.	Stockfish dev-20260318-d173a065	100.000%
2.	Reckless 0.10.0-dev-b5462f11	100.000%

TCEC Season 29, Sufi, Game 99: Reckless 0.10.0-dev-b5462f11-Stockfish dev-20260318-d173a065

Aloril — Wed, 15 Apr 2026 12:00:13 +0000

Apr 15 2026

Currently playing: 100. Stockfish dev-20260318-d173a065-Reckless 0.10.0-dev-b5462f11

Previous game 99. Reckless 0.10.0-dev-b5462f11-Stockfish dev-20260318-d173a065 1/2-1/2 added to BayesElo lists, result table:

Position in r-mobility table and r-moblity points can give different order in some cases

Pos	Engine	Rating	%	Points	Games	Direct encounter	SB	r-mobility points	r-mobility -/- points
1.	Stockfish dev-20260318-d173a065	3808±22	58.6	58.0	99	0.0	2378.00	57.788201332	-0.211798668
2.	Reckless 0.10.0-dev-b5462f11	3750±25	41.4	41.0	99	0.0	2378.00	41.211798668	0.211798668

R-mobility results as a table, not used as a tiebreak (see r-mobility points above)

G0.0==mate (including cursed mates), score(number of games), previous game was G15.5

17 different goal results

Pos	Name	G0.0	G1.0	G2.0	G3.0	G4.0	G5.0	G6.0	G8.0	G9.5	G15.5	G18.5	G20.5	G21.5	G22.5	G23.5	G24.5	G31.5
1.	Stockfish dev-20260318-d173a065	17(63)	-1(3)	-3(5)	1(3)	-1(3)	2(2)	1(3)	-1(1)	1(1)	-1(3)	-1(1)	-1(1)	-1(1)	-3(3)	3(3)	0(2)	-1(1)
2.	Reckless 0.10.0-dev-b5462f11	-17(63)	1(3)	3(5)	-1(3)	1(3)	-2(2)	-1(3)	1(1)	-1(1)	1(3)	1(1)	1(1)	1(1)	3(3)	-3(3)	0(2)	1(1)

Bayes Elo Ratings

Stockfish_13_CCRL is used as offset at 3526. Difference for some values in parenthesis if any. Created using Bayesian-Elo and some local scripts.

See also BayesElo rating based on previous and current season games (2 seasons). This is used in GUI and is the current rating.

TCEC rating

Ratings after last game.

All

Rank	Name	Elo	+	–	games	score	oppo.	draws
1	Stockfish	3808	22	22	366(+1)	61%	3727	46%
2	LCZero	3755	26	26	250	51%	3740	52%
3	Reckless	3750	25	25	283(+1)	54%	3728	48%
4	Integral	3718	39	39	116	52%	3706	50%
5	Torch	3715	24	24	297	62%	3626	53%
6	PlentyChess	3709	37	37	123	53%	3688	51%
7	Obsidian	3693	35	35	137	49%	3702	55%
8	Ceres	3679	40	40	113	59%	3604	53%
9	Stockfish_15_1G	3668	16	16	637	56%	3622	52%
10	KomodoDragon	3662	47	47	72	51%	3656	63%
11	RubiChess	3661	42	42	96	53%	3640	52%
12	Berserk	3658	45	45	86	43%	3709	47%
13	Pawnocchio	3658	27	27	236	58%	3601	51%
14	Halogen	3654	29	29	202	59%	3589	57%
15	Viridithas	3647	42	42	94	52%	3633	63%
16	Stormphrax	3645	43	43	90	49%	3652	54%
17	Caissa	3631	43	43	89	48%	3644	58%
18	Clover	3620	29	29	196	53%	3604	58%
19	Quanticade	3607	33	33	167	58%	3543	52%
20	Stockfish_15_300M	3607	10	10	1672	50%	3607	64%
21	Ginkgo	3599	43	43	90	52%	3583	56%
22	Horsie	3599	41	41	104	56%	3558	44%
23	Ethereal	3594	41	41	96	47%	3617	58%
24	Uralochka	3583	48	48	74	49%	3586	53%
25	Stockfish_15_100M	3570	7	7	3190	54%	3543	68%
26	rofChade	3569	46	46	79	46%	3601	58%
27	Seer	3562	45	45	80	44%	3600	61%
28	Tarnished	3562	30	30	182	52%	3551	58%
29	Booot	3557	47	47	76	45%	3594	50%
30	Cinder	3552	55	55	54	52%	3542	56%
31	Velvet	3548	47	47	80	51%	3541	48%
32	Stoofvlees	3541	48	48	71	43%	3587	58%
33	Heimdall	3538	37	37	122	50%	3539	54%
34	Renegade	3528	37	37	124	49%	3537	54%
35	Stockfish_13_CCRL	3522	9	9	2048	51%	3517	69%
36	Stockfish_15_30M_4th	3517	6	6	5120	51%	3508	69%
37	Igel	3509	47	47	74	46%	3536	57%
38	Stockfish_15_30M	3498	7	7	3154	49%	3506	66%
39	BlackMarlin	3494	48	48	73	45%	3532	53%
40	Monty	3470	54	54	69	57%	3386	35%
41	Arasan	3462	51	51	62	38%	3544	60%
42	Weiss	3462	230	230	2	75%	3350	50%
43	Tucano	3461	66	66	38	38%	3540	45%
44	DeepSjeng	3457	49	49	74	43%	3505	46%
45	Winter	3456	42	42	104	49%	3463	41%
46	Serendipity	3453	57	57	52	35%	3550	50%
47	Wasp	3446	63	63	42	36%	3541	52%
48	Sirius	3444	59	59	54	57%	3390	41%
49	Minic	3440	63	63	48	55%	3401	40%
50	Stockfish_15_10M	3427	7	7	3136	46%	3456	63%
51	Patricia	3404	43	43	96	42%	3461	42%
52	Stockfish_15_3M	3350	9	9	2080	51%	3342	59%
53	Lynx	3318	58	58	52	46%	3346	50%
54	Bagatur	3312	72	72	42	24%	3499	43%
55	Stockfish_15_1M	3254	9	9	2082	52%	3242	56%
56	ice4	3249	41	41	126	62%	3040	47%
57	ChessFighter	3242	55	55	64	40%	3325	48%
58	Princhess	3236	58	58	58	34%	3352	47%
59	c4ke	3227	37	37	154	56%	3084	47%
60	Stockfish_15_300k	3129	9	9	2076	52%	3113	49%
61	Cheese	3099	90	90	30	22%	3341	30%
62	4ku	3091	73	73	50	68%	2721	24%
63	LESS_STRO4K	3058	56	56	72	63%	2989	39%
64	STRO4K	2998	71	71	54	57%	2751	22%
65	Stockfish_15_100k	2968	10	10	2070	54%	2938	39%
66	4k.c	2822	51	51	105	31%	2888	24%
67	Stockfish_15_30k	2740	10	10	2058	51%	2731	29%
68	Stockfish_15_10k	2489	12	12	2057	55%	2429	18%
69	molly	2425	171	171	50	18%	2808	0%
70	Stockfish_15_3k	2116	15	15	2052	50%	2104	9%
71	Stockfish_15_1k	1718	22	22	1031	7%	2112	7%
72	pygone	1542	174	174	59	2%	2775	0%

TCEC Season 29, Sufi, Game 99 speculation simulation

Aloril — Wed, 15 Apr 2026 07:32:32 +0000

Apr 15 2026

For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

eloAdvantage = 140.859 and eloDraw = 261.489 updated on 2022-03-15 based on 300 Season 21 and 22 DivP games. Scale=0.617564 based on rating list 2022-03-27

Pos	Name	1.	2.
1.	Stockfish dev-20260318-d173a065	100.000%
2.	Reckless 0.10.0-dev-b5462f11	100.000%

Expected start time based on estimate of 5.29h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC	No	White	Black
2026-04-15 12:49	100	Stockfish dev-20260318-d173a065	Reckless 0.10.0-dev-b5462f11

TCEC Season 29, Sufi, Game 98: Stockfish dev-20260318-d173a065-Reckless 0.10.0-dev-b5462f11

Aloril — Wed, 15 Apr 2026 07:31:01 +0000

Apr 15 2026

Currently playing: 99. Reckless 0.10.0-dev-b5462f11-Stockfish dev-20260318-d173a065

Previous game 98. Stockfish dev-20260318-d173a065-Reckless 0.10.0-dev-b5462f11 0-1 added to BayesElo lists, result table:

Position in r-mobility table and r-moblity points can give different order in some cases

Pos	Engine	Rating	%	Points	Games	Direct encounter	SB	r-mobility points	r-mobility -/- points
1.	Stockfish dev-20260318-d173a065	3809±22	58.7	57.5	98	0.0	2328.75	57.288201332	-0.211798668
2.	Reckless 0.10.0-dev-b5462f11	3749±25	41.3	40.5	98	0.0	2328.75	40.711798668	0.211798668

R-mobility results as a table, not used as a tiebreak (see r-mobility points above)

G0.0==mate (including cursed mates), score(number of games), previous game was -G0.0

17 different goal results

Pos	Name	G0.0	G1.0	G2.0	G3.0	G4.0	G5.0	G6.0	G8.0	G9.5	G15.5	G18.5	G20.5	G21.5	G22.5	G23.5	G24.5	G31.5
1.	Stockfish dev-20260318-d173a065	17(63)	-1(3)	-3(5)	1(3)	-1(3)	2(2)	1(3)	-1(1)	1(1)	0(2)	-1(1)	-1(1)	-1(1)	-3(3)	3(3)	0(2)	-1(1)
2.	Reckless 0.10.0-dev-b5462f11	-17(63)	1(3)	3(5)	-1(3)	1(3)	-2(2)	-1(3)	1(1)	-1(1)	0(2)	1(1)	1(1)	1(1)	3(3)	-3(3)	0(2)	1(1)

Bayes Elo Ratings

Stockfish_13_CCRL is used as offset at 3526. Difference for some values in parenthesis if any. Created using Bayesian-Elo and some local scripts.

See also BayesElo rating based on previous and current season games (2 seasons). This is used in GUI and is the current rating.

TCEC rating

Ratings after last game.

All

Rank	Name	Elo	+	–	games	score	oppo.	draws
1	Stockfish	3808(-1)	22	22	365(+1)	61%	3727	46%
2	LCZero	3755	26	26	250	51%	3740	52%
3	Reckless	3750(+1)	25	25	282(+1)	54%	3727	48%
4	Integral	3718	39	39	116	52%	3706	50%
5	Torch	3715	24	24	297	62%	3626	53%
6	PlentyChess	3709	37	37	123	53%	3688	51%
7	Obsidian	3693	35	35	137	49%	3702	55%
8	Ceres	3679	40	40	113	59%	3604	53%
9	Stockfish_15_1G	3668	16	16	637	56%	3622	52%
10	KomodoDragon	3662(+1)	47	47	72	51%	3656	63%
11	RubiChess	3661	42	42	96	53%	3640	52%
12	Berserk	3658(-1)	45	45	86	43%	3709	47%
13	Pawnocchio	3658	27	27	236	58%	3601	51%
14	Halogen	3654	29	29	202	59%	3589	57%
15	Viridithas	3647	42	42	94	52%	3633	63%
16	Stormphrax	3645	43	43	90	49%	3652	54%
17	Caissa	3631	43	43	89	48%	3644	58%
18	Clover	3620	29	29	196	53%	3604	58%
19	Quanticade	3607	33	33	167	58%	3543	52%
20	Stockfish_15_300M	3607	10	10	1672	50%	3607	64%
21	Ginkgo	3599	43	43	90	52%	3583	56%
22	Horsie	3599	41	41	104	56%	3558	44%
23	Ethereal	3594(+1)	41	41	96	47%	3617	58%
24	Uralochka	3583	48	48	74	49%	3586	53%
25	Stockfish_15_100M	3570	7	7	3190	54%	3543	68%
26	rofChade	3569	46	46	79	46%	3601	58%
27	Seer	3562	45	45	80	44%	3600	61%
28	Tarnished	3562	30	30	182	52%	3551	58%
29	Booot	3557	47	47	76	45%	3594	50%
30	Cinder	3552	55	55	54	52%	3542	56%
31	Velvet	3548	47	47	80	51%	3541	48%
32	Stoofvlees	3541	48	48	71	43%	3587	58%
33	Heimdall	3538	37	37	122	50%	3539	54%
34	Renegade	3528	37	37	124	49%	3537	54%
35	Stockfish_13_CCRL	3522	9	9	2048	51%	3517	69%
36	Stockfish_15_30M_4th	3517	6	6	5120	51%	3508	69%
37	Igel	3509	47	47	74	46%	3536	57%
38	Stockfish_15_30M	3498	7	7	3154	49%	3506	66%
39	BlackMarlin	3494	48	48	73	45%	3532	53%
40	Monty	3470	54	54	69	57%	3386	35%
41	Arasan	3462	51	51	62	38%	3544	60%
42	Weiss	3462	230	230	2	75%	3350	50%
43	Tucano	3461	66	66	38	38%	3540	45%
44	DeepSjeng	3457	49	49	74	43%	3505	46%
45	Winter	3456	42	42	104	49%	3463	41%
46	Serendipity	3453	57	57	52	35%	3550	50%
47	Wasp	3446	63	63	42	36%	3541	52%
48	Sirius	3444	59	59	54	57%	3390	41%
49	Minic	3440	63	63	48	55%	3401	40%
50	Stockfish_15_10M	3427	7	7	3136	46%	3456	63%
51	Patricia	3404	43	43	96	42%	3461	42%
52	Stockfish_15_3M	3350	9	9	2080	51%	3342	59%
53	Lynx	3318	58	58	52	46%	3346	50%
54	Bagatur	3312	72	72	42	24%	3499	43%
55	Stockfish_15_1M	3254	9	9	2082	52%	3242	56%
56	ice4	3249	41	41	126	62%	3040	47%
57	ChessFighter	3242	55	55	64	40%	3325	48%
58	Princhess	3236	58	58	58	34%	3352	47%
59	c4ke	3227	37	37	154	56%	3084	47%
60	Stockfish_15_300k	3129	9	9	2076	52%	3113	49%
61	Cheese	3099	90	90	30	22%	3341	30%
62	4ku	3091	73	73	50	68%	2721	24%
63	LESS_STRO4K	3058	56	56	72	63%	2989	39%
64	STRO4K	2998	71	71	54	57%	2751	22%
65	Stockfish_15_100k	2968	10	10	2070	54%	2938	39%
66	4k.c	2822	51	51	105	31%	2888	24%
67	Stockfish_15_30k	2740	10	10	2058	51%	2731	29%
68	Stockfish_15_10k	2489	12	12	2057	55%	2429	18%
69	molly	2425	171	171	50	18%	2808	0%
70	Stockfish_15_3k	2116	15	15	2052	50%	2104	9%
71	Stockfish_15_1k	1718	22	22	1031	7%	2112	7%
72	pygone	1542	174	174	59	2%	2775	0%